Forschungsprojektes AC0K00016
ER - TY - RPRT TI - reclip:century 1: Models, Data and GHG-Scenarios, Simulations AU - Loibl, Wolfgang AU - Formayer, Herbert AU - Schöner, Wolfgang AU - Truhetz, Heimo AU - Anders, Ivonne AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Heinrich, Georg AU - Köstl, Mario AU - Nadeem, Imram AU - Peters-Anders, Jan AU - Schicker, Irene AU - Suklitsch, Martin AU - Züger, Hans CY - Wien DA - Juli 2011a PY - Juli 2011a LA - English M3 - Final Report ACRP Project Number: A760437 PB - AIT Austrian Institute of Technology UR - http://reclip.ait.ac.at/reclip_century/fileadmin/user_upload/reclip_century_files/reclip_century_Part_A_Aug_2011.pdf Y2 - 2013/10/07/ ER - TY - RPRT TI - recip:century2: Extended uncertainty analysis of the reclip:century ensemble AU - Heinrich, G. AU - Gobiet, A. AU - Truhetz, H. CY - Graz, Austria DA - 2012/// PY - 2012 M3 - WEGC Report to ACRP PB - Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz SN - Nr. 01/2012 ER - TY - BOOK TI - Expected Climate Change and its Uncertainty in the Alpine Region: Extended Uncertainty Assessment of the reclip:century and ENSEMBLES Multi-Model Dataset AU - Heinrich, G. AU - Gobiet, A. AU - Truhetz, H. AU - Mendlik, T. T2 - Scientifc Report CY - Graz, Austria DA - 2013/// PY - 2013 SP - 70 M1 - 50-2013 PB - Wegener Center Verlag SN - 978-3-9503112-7-3 UR - http://wegcwww.uni-graz.at/publ/wegcreports/2013/WCV-SciRep-No50-GHeinrichetal-May2013.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research AU - Jacob, Daniela AU - Petersen, Juliane AU - Eggert, Bastian AU - Alias, Antoinette AU - Christensen, Ole Bøssing AU - Bouwer, Laurens M. AU - Braun, Alain AU - Colette, Augustin AU - Déqué, Michel AU - Georgievski, Goran AU - Georgopoulou, Elena AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Menut, Laurent AU - Nikulin, Grigory AU - Haensler, Andreas AU - Hempelmann, Nils AU - Jones, Colin AU - Keuler, Klaus AU - Kovats, Sari AU - Kröner, Nico AU - Kotlarski, Sven AU - Kriegsmann, Arne AU - Martin, Eric AU - Meijgaard, Erik AU - Moseley, Christopher AU - Pfeifer, Susanne AU - Preuschmann, Swantje AU - Radermacher, Christine AU - Radtke, Kai AU - Rechid, Diana AU - Rounsevell, Mark AU - Samuelsson, Patrick AU - Somot, Samuel AU - Soussana, Jean-Francois AU - Teichmann, Claas AU - Valentini, Riccardo AU - Vautard, Robert AU - Weber, Björn AU - Yiou, Pascal T2 - Regional Environmental Change DA - 2014/04// PY - 2014 DO - 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2 DP - CrossRef VL - 14 IS - 2 SP - 563 EP - 578 LA - en SN - 1436-3798, 1436-378X ST - EURO-CORDEX UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2 Y2 - 2014/05/26/06:58:00 ER - TY - BOOK TI - The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change: a large-scale risk assessment based on a modified gap model and forest inventory data AU - Lexer, M.J. AU - Hönninger, K. AU - Scheifinger, H. AU - Matulla, Ch. AU - Groll, N. AU - Kromp-Kolb, H. AU - Schadauer, K. AU - Starlinger, F. AU - Englisch, M. T2 - Monographien CY - Wien DA - 2001/// PY - 2001 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 162 SP - 132 M1 - Band 132 PB - Umweltbundesamt SN - 3-85457-566-1 ST - The sensitivity of Austrian forests to scenarios of climatic change UR - http://www.umweltbundesamt.at/fileadmin/site/publikationen/M132.pdf Y2 - 2013/11/25/ KW - Climate change KW - Risk assessment KW - Forest inventory KW - Patch model KW - Potential natural vegetation KW - Transient response ER - TY - JOUR TI - The remarkable predictability of inter-annual variability of Atlantic hurricanes during the past decade AU - Chen, Jan-Huey AU - Lin, Shian-Jiann T2 - Geophysical Research Letters DA - 2011/06// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1029/2011GL047629 DP - CrossRef VL - 38 IS - 11 LA - en SN - 00948276 ST - The remarkable predictability of inter-annual variability of Atlantic hurricanes during the past decade UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011GL047629 Y2 - 2014/05/26/06:38:27 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability AU - Deser, Clara AU - Phillips, Adam AU - Bourdette, Vincent AU - Teng, Haiyan T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2012/02// PY - 2012 DO - 10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x DP - CrossRef VL - 38 IS - 3-4 SP - 527 EP - 546 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 ST - Uncertainty in climate change projections UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x Y2 - 2014/05/26/06:36:40 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changing Waves and Storms in the Northeast Atlantic? AU - WASA T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society DA - 1998/05// PY - 1998 DO - 10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0741:CWASIT>2.0.CO;2 DP - CrossRef VL - 79 IS - 5 SP - 741 EP - 760 SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477%281998%29079%3C0741%3ACWASIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Y2 - 2013/10/04/08:52:35 ER - TY - BOOK TI - Statistical analysis in climate research AU - von Storch, Hans AU - Zwiers, Francis W. DA - 1999/// PY - 1999 PB - Cambridge University Press SN - 0 521 45071 UR - http://www.leif.org/EOS/vonSt0521012309.pdf Y2 - 2013/08/31/15:39:30 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Rainfall downscaling in an alpine watershed applying a multiresolution approach AU - Ahrens, B. T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres AB - Distributed hydrological modeling in alpine watersheds needs high-resolution (∼1 km in space, 1 h in time) rainfall input. Spatial resolution of operational numerical weather forecast or regional climate models is coarser by at least one order of magnitude. Stochastic downscaling of meteorological model output is the appropriate way to bridge this scale gap. This study examines radar data in an orographically complex area in the southern European Alps by multiplicative multiresolution decomposition. Multiresolution rainfall fluctuations exhibit simple scaling characteristics. This result motivates the implementation of a spatial downscaling model, an example of an anisotropic microcanonical multiplicative random cascade, that is applied and evaluated. Necessity and skill of downscaling is illustrated by hydrological modeling of four heavy precipitation events in an Alpine watershed (total area of 2627 km2) with the grid-based model WaSiM-ETH. Downscaling of rainfall fields with 16 km grid spacing to fields with 1 km grid spacing improves the simulated event-mean runoff by 5–10% and the peak runoff by up to 20%. DA - 2003/04/27/ PY - 2003 DO - 10.1029/2001JD001485 DP - Wiley Online Library VL - 108 IS - D8 SP - 8388 LA - en SN - 2156-2202 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2001JD001485/abstract Y2 - 2014/05/26/06:18:28 KW - Precipitation KW - downscaling KW - 1821 Floods KW - 1854 Precipitation KW - 1869 Stochastic hydrology KW - forecast KW - multiplicative cascade KW - multiresolution KW - wavelet ER - TY - JOUR TI - Generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators AU - Furrer, Eva M. AU - Katz, Richard W. T2 - Climate Research AB - ABSTRACT: Stochastic weather generators are a popular method for producing synthetic sequences of daily weather. We demonstrate that generalized linear models (GLMs) can provide a general modeling framework, allowing the straightforward incorporation of annual cycles and other covariates (e.g. an index of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) into stochastic weather generators. We apply the GLM technique to daily time series of weather variables (i.e. precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature) from Pergamino, Argentina. Besides annual cycles, the fit is significantly improved by permitting both the transition probabilities of the first-order Markov chain for daily precipitation occurrence, as well as the means of both daily minimum and maximum temperature, to depend on the ENSO state. Although it is more parsimonious than typical weather generators, the GLM-based weather generator performs comparably, particularly in terms of extremes and overdispersion. DA - 2007/07/19/ PY - 2007 DO - 10.3354/cr034129 DP - Inter-Research Science Center VL - 34 IS - 2 SP - 129 EP - 144 UR - http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v34/n2/p129-144/ Y2 - 2014/05/26/06:15:17 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Fuzzy rule-based classification of atmospheric circulation patterns AU - Bárdossy, András AU - Duckstein, Lucien AU - Bogardi, Istvan T2 - International Journal of Climatology AB - A fuzzy rule-based methodology is applied to the problem of classifying daily atmospheric circulation patterns (CP). The purpose of the approach is to produce a semi-automated classification that combines the expert knowledge of the meteorologist and the speed and objectivity of the computer. Rules are defined corresponding to the geographical location of pressure anomalies. A CP is described by the location of four different possible pressure anomalies. The rules are formulated with fuzzy sets, allowing a certain flexibility because slightly different pressure maps may correspond to a given CP. Accordingly the degree of fulfilment of a rule is defined in order to measure the extent to which a pressure map may indeed belong to a CP type. As an output of the analysis, the CP on any given day is assigned to one, and only one, CP type to a varying degree of credibility.The methodology is applied to a European case study. The subjective classification of European CPs given by Hess and Brezowsky provides a basis for constructing the rules. The classification obtained can be used, for example, to simulate local precipitation conditioned on the 700 hPa pressure field. The information content of the fuzzy classification as measured by precipitation-related indices is similar to that of existing subjective classifications. The fuzzy rule-based approach thus has potential to be applicable to the classification of GCM produced daily CPs for the purpose of predicting the effect of climate change on space-time precipitation over areas where only a rudimentary classification exists or where none at all exists. DA - 1995/// PY - 1995 DO - 10.1002/joc.3370151003 DP - Wiley Online Library VL - 15 IS - 10 SP - 1087 EP - 1097 LA - en SN - 1097-0088 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3370151003/abstract Y2 - 2013/08/30/15:18:09 KW - Circulation pattern classification KW - fuzzy sets ER - TY - RPRT TI - Expected Climate Change and its Uncertainty in the Alpine Region AU - Heinrich, Georg AU - Gobiet, Andreas CY - Graz, Austria DA - 2011/// PY - 2011 SP - 48 LA - English PB - Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change SN - WEGC Report to ACRP Nr. 02/2011 UR - http://static.uni-graz.at/fileadmin/urbi-zentren/Wegcenter/3.Forschen/1.Forschungsgruppen/Reloclim/Publications/2011/wegc_heinrich_gobiet-2011-wegcreporttoacrp-reclip_climatechangeuncertaintyalps.pdf Y2 - 2013/10/07/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios: regional climate models, driving general circulation models and interannual variability AU - Déqué, M. AU - Somot, S. AU - Sanchez-Gomez, E. AU - Goodess, C. M. AU - Jacob, D. AU - Lenderink, G. AU - Christensen, O. B. T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2012/04/05/ PY - 2012 DO - 10.1007/s00382-011-1053-x DP - CrossRef VL - 38 IS - 5-6 SP - 951 EP - 964 SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 ST - The spread amongst ENSEMBLES regional scenarios UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-011-1053-x Y2 - 2013/08/30/16:31:50 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The radiation budget in a regional climate model AU - Kothe, Steffen AU - Dobler, A. AU - Beck, A. AU - Ahrens, B. T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2011/03// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s00382-009-0733-2 DP - CrossRef VL - 36 IS - 5-6 SP - 1023 EP - 1036 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-009-0733-2 Y2 - 2014/05/23/13:31:33 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Impact of nesting strategies in dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data AU - Beck, A. T2 - Geophysical Research Letters DA - 2004/// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1029/2004GL020115 DP - CrossRef VL - 31 IS - 19 LA - en SN - 0094-8276 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2004GL020115 Y2 - 2014/05/23/13:27:35 ER - TY - ELEC AU - Deutscher Wetterdienst - DWD UR - http://www.dwd.de/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Analysis of the West African Monsoon system in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM: ANALYSIS OF THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON SYSTEM IN COSMO-CLM AU - Kothe, S. AU - Lüthi, D. AU - Ahrens, B. T2 - International Journal of Climatology DA - 2013/// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1002/joc.3702 DP - CrossRef VL - 34 IS - 2 SP - 481 EP - 493 LA - en SN - 08998418 ST - Analysis of the West African Monsoon system in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3702 Y2 - 2014/05/23/13:23:18 ER - TY - JOUR TI - COSMO-CLM (CCLM) climate simulations over CORDEX-Africa domain: analysis of the ERA-Interim driven simulations at 0.44° and 0.22° resolution AU - Panitz, Hans-Jürgen AU - Dosio, Alessandro AU - Büchner, Matthias AU - Lüthi, Daniel AU - Keuler, Klaus T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2013/07/05/ PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00382-013-1834-5 DP - CrossRef LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1834-5 Y2 - 2014/05/23/13:21:49 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of daily precipitation from regional climate models AU - Themeßl, Jakob Matthias AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Leuprecht, Armin T2 - International Journal of Climatology DA - August 2011a PY - August 2011a DO - 10.1002/joc.2168 DP - CrossRef VL - 31 IS - 10 SP - 1530 EP - 1544 SN - 08998418 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.2168 Y2 - 2013/08/31/15:14:52 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The climate of daily precipitation in the Alps: development and analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset from pan-Alpine rain-gauge data: CLIMATE OF DAILY PRECIPITATION IN THE ALPS AU - Isotta, Francesco A. AU - Frei, Christoph AU - Weilguni, Viktor AU - Perčec Tadić, Melita AU - Lassègues, Pierre AU - Rudolf, Bruno AU - Pavan, Valentina AU - Cacciamani, Carlo AU - Antolini, Gabriele AU - Ratto, Sara M. AU - Munari, Michela AU - Micheletti, Stefano AU - Bonati, Veronica AU - Lussana, Cristian AU - Ronchi, Christian AU - Panettieri, Elvio AU - Marigo, Gianni AU - Vertačnik, Gregor T2 - International Journal of Climatology DA - 2014/04// PY - 2014 DO - 10.1002/joc.3794 DP - CrossRef VL - 34 IS - 5 SP - 1657 EP - 1675 LA - en SN - 08998418 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.3794 Y2 - 2014/05/23/13:12:32 ER - TY - SLIDE TI - Bias correction and localization of regional climate scenarios over mountainous area on a 1x1 km grid T2 - EMS Annual Meeting & European Conference on Applied Climatology 2010 A2 - Pospichal, B. A2 - Formayer, H. A2 - Haas, P. A2 - Nadeem, I. AB - The project "CC-WaterS" (Climate Change and Impacts on Water Supply) deals with challenges of water supply under the influence of existing and future climate change in Central and Eastern Europe. The meteorological part within this project assesses future climate conditions by using different regional climate models. The following three scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database are used: ECHAM5-REGCM3, ARPEGE-ALADIN, and HADCM3-PROMES with a spatial resolution 25 km each. For the whole target area, regionalization and bias correction by quantile mapping for temperature and precipitation is performed on a daily basis by using observations from the E-OBS dataset (25 km resolution) from the ENSEMBLES database. Over the Alpine region, a precipitation dataset from the ETH Zürich with a spatial resolution of about 18 km is applied. For one case study region in the Eastern Alps (containing the mountain areas of Hochschwab, Rax and Schneeberg in Styria/Lower Austria) a second step is taken to depict the small-scale variability in mountainous terrain. This is performed by using the precipitation analysis from the nowcasting system INCA provided by the Austrian Meteorological Service (ZAMG). These analyses combine ground-based and radar observations on a 1x1 km grid. With additional local temperature and precipitation observations, a localized, bias corrected precipitation scenario dataset on a daily base is produced. This presentation will discuss the method of bias correction and localization and the results for the 21st century. In a second step, uncertainties will be quantified, both resulting from the climate scenarios as well as from the localization method applied. CY - Zürich, Schweiz DA - 2010/09/01/ PY - 2010 UR - http://www.emetsoc.org/fileadmin/ems/dokumente/annual_meetings/2010/AW9_Pospichal.pdf Y2 - 2013/10/07/13:22:57 N1 -http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2010/EMS2010-792.pdf
ER - TY - CHAP TI - Correction of RegCM3 model output data using a rank matching approach applied on various meteorological parameters AU - Formayer, H. AU - Haas, P. T2 - CECILIA Deliverable 3.2: RCM output localization methods DA - 2009/// PY - 2009 UR - http://www.cecilia-eu.org/restricted/deliverables.php ER - TY - RPRT TI - Räumlich und zeitlich hochaufgelöste Temperaturszenarien für Wien und ausgewählte Analysen bezüglich Adaptionsstrategien AU - Formayer, H. AU - Haas, P. AU - Hofstätter, M. AU - Radanovics, S. AU - Kromp-Kolb, H. CY - Wien DA - 2007/// PY - 2007 DP - Google Scholar M3 - Endbericht einer Studie im Auftrag der Wiener Umweltschutzabteilung - MA 22 der Stadt Wien gemeinsam mit der MA 27 - EU-Strategie und Wirtschaftsentwicklung. PB - Institut für Meteorologie, Universität für Bodenkultur UR - https://www.wien.gv.at/wirtschaft/standort/pdf/temperaturszenarien.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Diurnal precipitation cycle in Austria AU - Yaqub, Asma AU - Seibert, Petra AU - Formayer, Herbert T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology DA - 2011/// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s00704-010-0281-z DP - CrossRef VL - 103 IS - 1-2 SP - 109 EP - 118 SN - 0177-798X, 1434-4483 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-010-0281-z Y2 - 2013/08/31/15:58:56 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Multivariate rainfall disaggregation at a fine timescale AU - Koutsoyiannis, Demetris AU - Onof, Christian AU - Wheater, Howard S. T2 - Water Resources Research DA - 2003/// PY - 2003 DO - 10.1029/2002WR001600 DP - Google Scholar VL - 39 IS - 7 UR - http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2003/2002WR001600.shtml Y2 - 2013/08/31/11:19:46 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal AU - Themeßl, Matthias Jakob AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Heinrich, Georg T2 - Climatic Change DA - September 23, 2011b PY - September 23, 2011b DO - 10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4 DP - CrossRef VL - 112 IS - 2 SP - 449 EP - 468 SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4 Y2 - 2013/08/31/15:15:32 ER - TY - BOOK TI - Parameterization schemes: keys to understanding numerical weather prediction models AU - Stensrud, David J CY - Cambridge DA - 2007/// PY - 2007 DP - Open WorldCat LA - English PB - Cambridge University Press SN - 978-0-521-12676-2 0-521-12676-2 ST - Parameterization schemes UR - http://www.cambridge.org/at/academic/subjects/earth-and-environmental-science/atmospheric-science-and-meteorology/parameterization-schemes-keys-understanding-numerical-weather-prediction-models?format=HB ER - TY - BOOK TI - Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling AU - Pielke, Roger A. AB - The second edition of Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling is a fully revised resource for researchers and practitioners in the growing field of meteorological modeling at the mesoscale. Pielke has enhanced the new edition by quantifying model capability (uncertainty) by a detailed evaluation of the assumptions of parameterization and error propagation. Mesoscale models are applied in a wide variety of studies, including weather prediction, regional and local climate assessments, and air pollution investigations. CY - San Diego DA - 2001/12/13/ PY - 2001 DP - Amazon.com ET - 2 edition VL - 78 SP - 676 LA - English PB - Academic Press SN - 978-0-12-554766-6 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe AU - Riediger, Ulf AU - Gratzki, Annegret T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift DA - 2014/02/01/ PY - 2014 DO - 10.1127/0941-2948/2014/0519 DP - CrossRef LA - en SN - 0941-2948 UR - http://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/detail/prepub/82295/Future_weather_types_and_their_influence_on_mean_a?af=crossref Y2 - 2014/05/23/12:15:53 ER - TY - BOOK TI - Langzeitverhalten der Starkniederschläge in Baden-Württemberg und Bayern: KLIWA-Projekt A 1.1.3 "Trenduntersuchungen extremer Niederschlagsereignisse in Baden-kWürttemberg und Bayern" AU - Albrecht, Franz M AU - Dietzer, Bernd CY - Offenbach DA - 2006/// PY - 2006 DP - Open WorldCat LA - German PB - Dt. Wetterdienst, Abt. Hydrometeorologie SN - 3-88148-412-4 978-3-88148-412-1 ST - Langzeitverhalten der Starkniederschläge in Baden-Württemberg und Bayern ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changes in the Extremes of the Climate Simulated by CCC GCM2 under CO 2 Doubling AU - Zwiers, Francis W. AU - Kharin, Viatcheslav V. T2 - Journal of Climate DA - 1998/09// PY - 1998 DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2200:CITEOT>2.0.CO;2 DP - CrossRef VL - 11 IS - 9 SP - 2200 EP - 2222 LA - en SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442 UR - http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998JCli...11.2200Z Y2 - 2014/05/23/11:59:15 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Little change in global drought over the past 60 years AU - Sheffield, Justin AU - Wood, Eric F. AU - Roderick, Michael L. T2 - Nature AB - Drought is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future as a result of climate change, mainly as a consequence of decreases in regional precipitation but also because of increasing evaporation driven by global warming. Previous assessments of historic changes in drought over the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries indicate that this may already be happening globally. In particular, calculations of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) show a decrease in moisture globally since the 1970s with a commensurate increase in the area in drought that is attributed, in part, to global warming. The simplicity of the PDSI, which is calculated from a simple water-balance model forced by monthly precipitation and temperature data, makes it an attractive tool in large-scale drought assessments, but may give biased results in the context of climate change. Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because the PDSI uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years. The results have implications for how we interpret the impact of global warming on the hydrological cycle and its extremes, and may help to explain why palaeoclimate drought reconstructions based on tree-ring data diverge from the PDSI-based drought record in recent years. DA - 2012/11/15/ PY - 2012 DO - 10.1038/nature11575 DP - www.nature.com VL - 491 IS - 7424 SP - 435 EP - 438 J2 - Nature LA - en SN - 0028-0836 UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7424/full/nature11575.html Y2 - 2014/05/22/11:48:39 KW - Climate science KW - Earth sciences KW - Environmental science ER - TY - JOUR TI - Predicted twenty-first-century changes in seasonal extreme precipitation events in the Parallel Climate Model AU - Wehner, M. F. T2 - Journal of Climate AB - Twenty-year return values of annual and seasonal maxima of daily precipitation are calculated from a set of transiently forced coupled general circulation model simulations. The magnitude and pattern of return values are found to be highly dependent on the seasonal cycle. A similar dependence is found for projected future changes in return values. The correlation between the spatial pattern of return value changes and mean precipitation changes is found to be low. Hence, the changes in mean precipitation do not provide significant information about changes in precipitation extreme values. DA - 2004/// PY - 2004 VL - 17 SP - 4281 EP - 4290 LA - en UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3197.1 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble AU - Kharin, V. V. AU - Zwiers, F. W. AU - Zhang, X. AU - Wehner, M. T2 - Climatic Change AB - Twenty-year temperature and precipitation extremes and their projected future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), updating a similar study based on the CMIP3 ensemble. The projected changes are documented for three radiative forcing scenarios. The performance of the CMIP5 models in simulating 20-year temperature and precipitation extremes is comparable to that of the CMIP3 ensemble. The models simulate late 20th century warm extremes reasonably well, compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes. Simulated late 20th century precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics but uncertainty in extreme precipitation in the tropics and subtropics remains very large, both in the models and the observationally-constrained datasets. Consistent with CMIP3 results, CMIP5 cold extremes generally warm faster than warm extremes, mainly in regions where snow and sea-ice retreat with global warming. There are tropical and subtropical regions where warming rates of warm extremes exceed those of cold extremes. Relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation. The corresponding waiting times for late 20th century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, except for a few subtropical regions. The CMIP5 planetary sensitivity in extreme precipitation is about 6 %/°C, with generally lower values over extratropical land. DA - 2013/07/01/ PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 DP - link.springer.com VL - 119 IS - 2 SP - 345 EP - 357 J2 - Climatic Change LA - en SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0705-8 Y2 - 2014/05/22/11:29:15 KW - Atmospheric Sciences KW - Climate change impacts ER - TY - CHAP TI - Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I. AU - Nicholls, Neville AU - Easterling, David AU - Goodess, Clare M. AU - Kanae, S. AU - Jossin, J. AU - Lu, Y. AU - Marengo, J. AU - McInnes,, K. AU - Rahimi, M. AU - Reichstein, Markus AU - Sorteberg, A. AU - Vera, C. AU - Zhang, X. T2 - Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation . A2 - Field, C. B. A2 - Barros, V. A2 - Stocker, T.F. A2 - Qin, D. A2 - Dokken, D. J. A2 - Ebi, K. L. A2 - Mastrandrea, M.D. A2 - Mach, K.J. A2 - Plattner, G.-K. A2 - Allen, S.K. A2 - Tignor, M. A2 - Midgley, P.M. T3 - A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) CY - Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA DA - 2012/// PY - 2012 SP - 109 EP - 230 PB - Cambridge University Press UR - https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srex/SREX_Full_Report.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Going to the Extremes: an intercomparison of model-simulated historical and future changes in extreme events AU - Tebaldi, Claudia AU - Hayhoe, Katharinec AU - Arblaster, Julie M. AU - Meehl, Gerald A. T2 - Climatic Change AB - Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments. DA - 2006/12/01/ PY - 2006 DO - 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 DP - link.springer.com VL - 79 IS - 3-4 SP - 185 EP - 211 J2 - Climatic Change LA - en SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 Y2 - 2014/05/22/11:10:39 KW - Meteorology/Climatology ER - TY - JOUR TI - No increase in multi-day temperature variability in Austria following climate warming AU - Hiebl, J. AU - Hofstätter, M. T2 - Climatic Change DA - 2012/01/11/ PY - 2012 DO - 10.1007/s10584-011-0389-x DP - CrossRef VL - 113 IS - 3-4 SP - 733 EP - 750 SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0389-x Y2 - 2013/08/30/12:56:22 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Elevation gradients of European climate change in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM AU - Kotlarski, Sven AU - Bosshard, T. AU - Lüthi, D. AU - Pall, P. AU - Schär, C. 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AU - Somot, Samuel AU - Ulden, Aad AU - Hurk, Bart T2 - Climatic Change DA - 2007/03/17/ PY - 2007 DO - 10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4 DP - CrossRef VL - 81 IS - S1 SP - 31 EP - 52 SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 ST - An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-006-9213-4 Y2 - 2013/08/31/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System AU - Rial, José A. AU - Pielke Sr., Roger A. AU - Beniston, Martin AU - Claussen, Martin AU - Canadell, Josep AU - Cox, Peter AU - Held, Hermann AU - de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie AU - Prinn, Ronald AU - Reynolds, James F. AU - Salas, José D. T2 - Climatic Change DA - 2004/07// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f DP - CrossRef VL - 65 IS - 1-2 SP - 11 EP - 38 SN - 0165-0009 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f Y2 - 2013/08/31/12:46:50 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models AU - Blenkinsop, S. AU - Fowler, H.J. T2 - International Journal of Climatology DA - 2007/10// PY - 2007 DO - 10.1002/joc.1538 DP - CrossRef VL - 27 IS - 12 SP - 1595 EP - 1610 SN - 08998418, 10970088 UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1538/abstract Y2 - 2013/08/30/15:21:16 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Statistical downscaling of general circulation model output: A comparison of methods AU - Wilby, Robert L. AU - Wigley, T. M. L. AU - Conway, D. AU - Jones, P. D. AU - Hewitson, B. C. AU - Main, J. AU - Wilks, D. S. 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T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology DA - 2009/04/29/ PY - 2009 DO - 10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9 DP - CrossRef VL - 99 IS - 1-2 SP - 187 EP - 192 SN - 0177-798X, 1434-4483 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-009-0134-9 Y2 - 2013/08/31/12:32:51 ER - TY - STAT TI - ÖNORM EN ISO 15927-4 - Wärme- und feuchtetechnisches Verhalten von Gebäuden - Berechnung und Darstellung von Klimadaten - Teil 4: Stündliche Daten zur Abschätzung des Jahresenergiebedarfs für Heiz- und Kühlsysteme (ISO 15927-4:2005) AU - ÖNORM AB - Dieser Teil von EN ISO 15927 legt ein Verfahren für die Erstellung eines Referenzjahres aus geeigneten stündlichen meteorologischen Daten fest, die zur Abschätzung des durchschnittlichen Jahresenergiebedarfs für Heiz- und Kühlsysteme geeignet sind. Weitere Referenzjahre, die durchschnittliche Bedingungen darstellen, können für besondere Zwecke erstellt werden. Die in diesem Teil von EN ISO 15927 beschriebenen Verfahren eignen sich nicht für die Erstellung von Jahren mit außer- oder ungewöhnlichen meteorologischen Bedingungen beispielsweise zur Simulierung von feuchtebedingten Schäden oder des Energiebedarfs in kalten Jahren. DA - 2005/10/01/ PY - 2005 M1 - ÖNORM EN ISO 15927-4 UR - http://www.bdb.at/Service/NormenDetail?id=204171 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A serial approach to local stochastic weather models AU - Racsko, P. AU - Szeidl, L. AU - Semenov, M. 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In this report we analyse the changes in variability and extremes in temperature and precipitation in Europe by the end of this century, based on high-resolution (12 km) simulations of the regional climate model HIRHAM CN - ISSN 1018-5593 DA - 2008/// PY - 2008 DP - Google Scholar M3 - JRC Scientific and Technical Reports SN - EUR 23291 EN / No. 52 ST - Extreme temperatures and precipitation in Europe UR - http://eusoils.jrc.ec.europa.eu/esdb_archive/eusoils_docs/doc_other.html Y2 - 2013/08/30/16:25:59 ER - TY - JOUR TI - A spatiotemporal model for downscaling precipitation occurrence and amounts AU - Charles, Stephen P. AU - Bates, Bryson C. AU - Hughes, James P. 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N1 -verwenden neuronaler netze zum downscalen von 2xco2; didaktisch;
ER - TY - JOUR TI - Simulation of regional climate using a limited area model nested in a general circulation model AU - Giorgi, Filippo T2 - Journal of Climate DA - 1990/// PY - 1990 DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003<0941:SORCUA>2.0.CO;2 DP - Google Scholar VL - 3 IS - 9 SP - 941 EP - 963 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1990)003%3C0941%3ASORCUA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Y2 - 2013/08/30/17:03:48 N1 -nestet ein LAM (MM4) in zwei GCMs (CCM1 als T42 und R15); untersucht westen von nordamerika im jänner; das genestete modell bringt ergebinsse, die näher an den beobachtungen liegen als das GCM alleine;
N1 - The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:RCM-Lit
N1 -RCM-Lit
N1 - The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:0165-0009
ER - TY - JOUR TI - An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data AU - Bretherton, Christopher S. AU - Smith, Catherine AU - Wallace, John M. T2 - Journal of Climate DA - 1992/// PY - 1992 DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:AIOMFF>2.0.CO;2 DP - Google Scholar VL - 5 IS - 6 SP - 541 EP - 560 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005%3C0541%3AAIOMFF%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Y2 - 2013/08/30/15:28:42 N1 -dieser artikel vergleicht verschiedene methoden um den zusammenhang zwischen zwei zeitreihen zu beschreiben; CPCA, CCA, SVD; für diese methoden wird eine gemeins. notation eingeführt; und die methoden werden etwas erklärt; letzendlich werden sie auf einen datensatz angewendet und verglichen; CPCA findet am besten die gekopp. muster in summe aber wird der SVD der vorzug gegeben;
N1 - The following values have no corresponding Zotero field:Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton, 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
N1 -Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L. Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton, 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
KW - Science / Environmental Science KW - Science / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology KW - Business & Economics / Economics / General KW - Political Science / General KW - Technology & Engineering / Environmental / General ER - TY - JOUR TI - Global climate change and variability and its influence on Alpine climate — concepts and observations AU - Wanner, H. AU - Rickli, R. AU - Salvisberg, E. AU - Schmutz, C. AU - Schüepp, M. T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology AB - The paper discusses annual to decadal climate variability and change in the European Alps by utilizing the procedure of synoptic downscaling, i.e. it investigates the influence of global to continental scale synoptic structures and processes on the regional climate of the Alps. The European Alps lie to the southeast and under the right exit zone of the southwest-northeast oriented axis of the polar front jet over the North Atlantic ocean, in a transition zone between the Azores high and Icelandic low, between oceanic and continental and between Mediterranean and North Atlantic climates. Together with complex topographically induced phenomena like lee cyclogenesis, orographic precipitation, strong downslope winds and thermotopographical circulation systems, this transitional position makes climate studies in the Alps even more interesting. Only a minor correlation can be observed between global climate variability and Alpine climate. In contrast, the Alpine climate is strongly related to processes over the North Atlantic ocean and its sea ice system (e.g. it has a high correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the dynamics and position of the Icelandic low), an area with a rather low climate prediction potential. Since the early 1970's (or just after the “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic Ocean) the intensification of the wintertime westerly jet over the North Atlantic area led to a noticeable northwest-southeast mass transport in the exit area of the jet over Central Europe, leading to pressure and temperature rises and an increase in the amount of precipitation. There is a question over whether this phenomenon is a consequence of natural climate variability or the beginning of an anthropogenic climate change. DA - 1997/09/01/ PY - 1997 DO - 10.1007/BF00865022 DP - link.springer.com VL - 58 IS - 3-4 SP - 221 EP - 243 J2 - Theor Appl Climatol LA - en SN - 0177-798X, 1434-4483 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF00865022 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:41:28 KW - Climate change KW - Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution KW - Meteorology/Climatology KW - Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution ER - TY - JOUR TI - Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment AU - Wang, Guiling T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2005/12// PY - 2005 DO - 10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9 DP - CrossRef VL - 25 IS - 7-8 SP - 739 EP - 753 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 ST - Agricultural drought in a future climate UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-005-0057-9 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:40:12 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle AU - Voss, Reinhard AU - May, Wilhelm AU - Roeckner, Erich T2 - International Journal of Climatology AB - Changes in variability and extremes of the hydrological cycle are studied in two 30 year simulations using a general circulation model at high horizontal resolution. The simulations represent the present-day climate and a period in which the radiative forcing corresponds to a doubling of the present-day concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. In most regions and seasons the probability density function of daily precipitation experiences a stretching associated with a higher probability of heavy precipitation events in the warmer climate. Whereas extremely long wet spells show only moderate changes, the extremely long dry spells are extended at middle latitudes over most land areas. At high latitudes the changes in annual maximum river runoff are mainly controlled by changes in snow budget. Eight out of 14 selected major rivers show a statistically significant change in 10 year return values of the annual maximum discharge. In two cases a significant decrease is found and in six cases there is a significant increase. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society DA - 2002/06/15/ PY - 2002 DO - 10.1002/joc.757 DP - Wiley Online Library VL - 22 IS - 7 SP - 755 EP - 777 J2 - Int. J. Climatol. LA - en SN - 1097-0088 ST - Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.757/abstract Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:38:56 KW - precipitation intensity KW - discharge KW - dry spells KW - flooding KW - heavy precipitation KW - wet spells ER - TY - JOUR TI - Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe AU - van Ulden, A. P. AU - van Oldenborgh, G. J. T2 - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DA - 2006/// PY - 2006 VL - 6 SP - 863 EP - 881 UR - http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/acp6863.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design AU - Taylor, Karl E. AU - Stouffer, Ronald J. AU - Meehl, Gerald A. T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society DA - 2012/04// PY - 2012 DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 DP - CrossRef VL - 93 IS - 4 SP - 485 EP - 498 LA - en SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:30:03 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Frequency Changes of Weather Types in the Alpine Region since 1945 AU - Stefanicki, G. AU - Talkner, P. AU - Weber, R. O. T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology AB - The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schüepp’s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has significantly changed since the beginning of its recording in 1945. The annual frequency (number of days per year) has shifted towards more convective and less advective weather types. Since 1945 the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of these changes took place in winter. The annual frequencies of weather types and the annual mean of certain local meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. On the large scale there is a strong interdependence between the high pressure weather type and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index which is based on the sea-level pressure difference between Portugal and Iceland. DA - 1998/09/01/ PY - 1998 DO - 10.1007/s007040050033 DP - link.springer.com VL - 60 IS - 1-4 SP - 47 EP - 61 J2 - Theor Appl Climatol LA - en SN - 0177-798X, 1434-4483 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s007040050033 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:27:39 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM AU - Semenov, V. AU - Bengtsson, L. T2 - Climate Dynamics AB - Secular trends of daily precipitation characteristics are considered in the transient climate change experiment with a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 for 1900–2099. The climate forcing is due to increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mean daily precipitation, precipitation intensity, probability of wet days and parameters of the gamma distribution are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the changes of heavy precipitation. Analysis of the annual mean precipitation trends for 1900–1999 revealed general agreement with observations with significant positive trends in mean precipitation over continental areas. In the 2000–2099 period precipitation trend patterns followed the tendency obtained for 1900–1999 but with significantly increased magnitudes. Unlike the annual mean precipitation trends for which negative values were found for some continental areas, the mean precipitation intensity and scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution increased over all land territories. Negative trends in the number of wet days were found over most of the land areas except high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The shape parameter of the gamma distribution in general revealed a slight negative trend in the areas of the precipitation increase. Investigation of daily precipitation revealed an unproportional increase of heavy precipitation events for the land areas including local maxima in Europe and the eastern United States. DA - 2002/06/01/ PY - 2002 DO - 10.1007/s00382-001-0218-4 DP - link.springer.com VL - 19 IS - 2 SP - 123 EP - 140 J2 - Climate Dynamics LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 ST - Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-001-0218-4 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:27:04 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Klimaänderung in Österreich – hydrologisch relevante Klimaelemente AU - Schöner, W. AU - Böhm, R. AU - Haslinger, K. T2 - Österreichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft AB - Climate change in Austria is described with a focus on hydrological relevant climate variables for both the past and the future. For characterisation of the past climate homogenised monthly series as well as quality-checked daily values are used. The future climate (2021–2050) is derived from a scenario run of the regional climate model CLM (forced by the Global Climate Model ECHAM5) based on the A1B scenario. According to the CLM model the mean air temperature 2021–2050 in Austria will increase by about 1 °C compared to 1976–2007 (the reference period), with more pronounced increase in summer compared to winter. Winter precipitation will increase north of the Alpine main divide, summer precipitation will generally decrease. A clear change in summer precipitation is not expected before 2050. All data presented are classified according to their quality based on a simple evaluation schema (hard – medium hard – soft – no fact). DA - 2011/02/01/ PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s00506-010-0271-5 DP - link.springer.com VL - 63 IS - 1-2 SP - 11 EP - 20 J2 - Österr Wasser- und Abfallw LA - de SN - 0945-358X, 1613-7566 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00506-010-0271-5 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:24:56 KW - Chemistry/Food Science, general KW - Engineering, general KW - Waste Management/Waste Technology KW - Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution ER - TY - JOUR TI - German Bight storms analyzed AU - Schmidt, Heiner AU - von Storch, Hans T2 - Nature DA - 1993/// PY - 1993 VL - 365 IS - 6449 SP - 791 EP - 791 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Hiilidioksidin lisääntymisen vaikutus Pohjois-Euroopan ilmastoon globaaleissa ilmastomalleissa (The impact of increasing carbon dioxide on the climate of northern Europe in global climate models) AU - Räisänen, Jouni T2 - Terra DA - 2001/// PY - 2001 DP - doria17-kk.lib.helsinki.fi VL - 1130 SN - ISSN 0040-3741 UR - http://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/19935 Y2 - 2014/04/11/13:17:58 KW - CMIP2-mallit KW - ilmasto - lämpötila - muutos - mallit KW - ilmasto - mallit KW - ilmastonmuutokset - ennusteet - Pohjois-Eurooppa KW - ilmastonmuutokset - kasvihuonekasvit - hiilidioksidi KW - ilmastonmuutokset - mallit KW - ilmastonmuutokset - simulointi KW - kasvihuonekaasut - vaikutukset - ilmasto KW - sademäärä - muutos - mallit ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM AU - Pinto, Joaquim G. AU - Fröhli, E. L. AU - Leckebusch, Gregor C. AU - Ulbrich, Uwe T2 - Natural Hazards Earth System Sciences AB - A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensem- ble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to es- timate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maxi- mum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40- Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) re- produce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES- Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisa- tions are considered. On average, insured loss potentials in- crease for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread be- tween the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Ger- many from − 4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing inter- annual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss poten- tials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea. DA - 2007/// PY - 2007 VL - 7 SP - 165 EP - 17 LA - en UR - http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/7/165/2007/nhess-7-165-2007.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Cost733cat – A database of weather and circulation type classifications AU - Philipp, Andreas AU - Bartholy, Judit AU - Beck, Christoph AU - Erpicum, Michel AU - Esteban, Pere AU - Fettweis, Xavier AU - Huth, Radan AU - James, Paul AU - Jourdain, Sylvie AU - Kreienkamp, Frank AU - Krennert, Thomas AU - Lykoudis, Spyros AU - Michalides, Silas C. AU - Pianko-Kluczynska, Krystyna AU - Post, Piia AU - Álvarez, Domingo Rasilla AU - Schiemann, Reinhard AU - Spekat, Arne AU - Tymvios, Filippos S. T2 - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C T3 - Classifications of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns – Theory and Applications AB - A new database of weather and circulation type catalogs is presented comprising 17 automated classification methods and five subjective classifications. It was compiled within COST Action 733 “Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Type Classifications for European regions” in order to evaluate different methods for weather and circulation type classification. This paper gives a technical description of the included methods using a new conceptual categorization for classification methods reflecting the strategy for the definition of types. Methods using predefined types include manual and threshold based classifications while methods producing types derived from the input data include those based on eigenvector techniques, leader algorithms and optimization algorithms. In order to allow direct comparisons between the methods, the circulation input data and the methods’ configuration were harmonized for producing a subset of standard catalogs of the automated methods. The harmonization includes the data source, the climatic parameters used, the classification period as well as the spatial domain and the number of types. Frequency based characteristics of the resulting catalogs are presented, including variation of class sizes, persistence, seasonal and inter-annual variability as well as trends of the annual frequency time series. The methodological concept of the classifications is partly reflected by these properties of the resulting catalogs. It is shown that the types of subjective classifications compared to automated methods show higher persistence, inter-annual variation and long-term trends. Among the automated classifications optimization methods show a tendency for longer persistence and higher seasonal variation. However, it is also concluded that the distance metric used and the data preprocessing play at least an equally important role for the properties of the resulting classification compared to the algorithm used for type definition and assignment. DA - 2010/// PY - 2010 DO - 10.1016/j.pce.2009.12.010 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 35 IS - 9–12 SP - 360 EP - 373 J2 - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C SN - 1474-7065 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474706510000045 Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:43:46 KW - Europe KW - Circulation type classification KW - COST 733 KW - Dataset KW - Weather type classification ER - TY - JOUR TI - Long-Term Variability of Daily North Atlantic–European Pressure Patterns since 1850 Classified by Simulated Annealing Clustering. AU - Philipp, Aandreas AU - Della-Marta, Paul M. AU - Jacobeit, Jucundus AU - Fereday, D.R. AU - Jones, P. D. AU - Moberg, Anders AU - Wanner, H. T2 - Journal of Climate DA - 2007/// PY - 2007 VL - 20 SP - 4065 EP - 4095 ER - TY - JOUR TI - More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century AU - Meehl, Gerald A. AU - Tebaldi, Claudia T2 - Science AB - A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future. DA - 2004/08/13/ PY - 2004 DO - 10.1126/science.1098704 DP - www.sciencemag.org VL - 305 IS - 5686 SP - 994 EP - 997 J2 - Science LA - en SN - 0036-8075, 1095-9203 UR - http://www.sciencemag.org/content/305/5686/994 Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:36:08 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Storminess in northern Italy and the Adriatic Sea reaching back to 1760 AU - Matulla, C. AU - Hofstätter, M. AU - Auer, I. AU - Böhm, R. AU - Maugeri, M. AU - von Storch, H. AU - Krueger, O. T2 - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C T3 - The Climate of Venetia and Northern Adriatic AB - This study investigates storminess in northern Italy and the northern Adriatic Sea through the examination of several storm proxies. These proxies are based on homogenized daily mean pressure series given at a set of stations (Genoa, Milan, Padua, Turin, and Hvar). The application of widely accepted and well-known methods on pressure series allows for a long-term year-to-year analysis of the intra-seasonal storm variability. As storminess is usually more intense throughout the cold season, our analysis is limited to the October–March period of each year. The following proxies are considered in this study: First, we assess the statistics of geostrophic wind speed. These statistics are derived from two adjacent triangles that are located across the Adriatic Sea (Padua–Hvar–Genoa) and in northern Italy (Genoa–Padua–Turin). Second, we evaluate annual statistics of time series of pressure tendency. Last, intra-seasonal low percentiles of pressure are also made use of. These proxies are used to describe the evolution of the storm climate far back in time, covering in some cases a 260-year long period. The proxies show pronounced interannual and interdecadal variability, but no sustained long-term trend. DA - 2012/// PY - 2012 DO - 10.1016/j.pce.2011.04.010 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 40–41 SP - 80 EP - 85 J2 - Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C SN - 1474-7065 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S147470651100074X Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:31:42 KW - Adriatic Sea KW - From 1760 on KW - Northern Italy KW - Storminess KW - Venetian lagoon ER - TY - JOUR TI - European storminess: late nineteenth century to present AU - Matulla, C. AU - Schöner, W. AU - Alexandersson, H. AU - Storch, H. AU - Wang, X. L. T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2008/08// PY - 2008 DO - 10.1007/s00382-007-0333-y DP - CrossRef VL - 31 IS - 2-3 SP - 125 EP - 130 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 ST - European storminess UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-007-0333-y Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:30:31 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Mediterranean water cycle changes: transition to drier 21st century conditions in observations and CMIP3 simulations AU - Mariotti, Annarita AU - Zeng, Ning AU - Yoon, Jin-Ho AU - Artale, Vincenzo AU - Navarra, Antonio AU - Alpert, Pinhas AU - Li, Laurent Z X T2 - Environmental Research Letters DA - 2008/10// PY - 2008 DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/044001 DP - CrossRef VL - 3 IS - 4 SP - 044001 SN - 1748-9326 ST - Mediterranean water cycle changes UR - http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/3/i=4/a=044001?key=crossref.b5346b8a38acf08e2ace9de8da3ab87c Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:29:48 ER - TY - JOUR TI - On the relationship between cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change AU - Leckebusch, Gregor C. AU - Ulbrich, Uwe T2 - Global and Planetary Change T3 - Extreme climatic events AB - The relationship between cyclones and extreme wind events over Europe under climate change conditions is analysed using global as well as regional climate model simulations. In this study, climate change simulations based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 are used. Cyclone systems over the Northeast Atlantic and Europe are identified for the Hadley Centre global general circulation model HadCM3 using an objective algorithm based on the search of the maxima of the Laplacian of the mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Cyclone tracks are recognized in a second step of the procedure. Extreme cyclone systems are defined via the exceedance of the 95th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP for each system. Extreme wind events are defined similar by values above the 95th percentile of the daily maximum wind speed at the lowest model level and related to the core pressure of the nearest cyclone system. Although the overall number of modelled tracks is underestimated in the control period of the global model's simulation with present-day greenhouse gas forcing, compared to reanalysis data, realistic patterns of the track density over the investigation area are simulated. Changes occur in particular with respect to the A2 scenario for extreme cyclone systems, while for B2 the changes are less pronounced. Especially over western parts of Central Europe, the track density of extreme cyclones increases for A2, accompanied by a tendency towards more intense systems. With respect to the A2 scenario, a tendency towards more extreme wind events caused by deepening cyclones is identified for several regions of Western Europe such as Spain, France, United Kingdom or Germany. Additionally, the climate change signal in the regional climate model (RCM) HadRM3H is analysed. In accordance with the signal of the wind speed changes in the GCM simulation, the RCM reveals an increase of the 95th percentile of the daily maximum wind speed over extended parts of Western Europe related to the areas of increased track density of extreme cyclones under the A2 scenario. Changes with respect to the SRES B2 scenario are similar in their structure, but less pronounced in their amplitude. DA - 2004/12// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.011 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 44 IS - 1–4 SP - 181 EP - 193 J2 - Global and Planetary Change SN - 0921-8181 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818104001067 Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:27:41 KW - Climate change KW - Europe KW - Extratropical cyclones KW - Extreme wind events KW - Global general climate model KW - Regional climate model KW - SRES scenarios KW - Windstorms ER - TY - BOOK TI - Langzeitverhalten der Starkniederschläge in Baden-Württemberg und Bayern: KLIWA-Projekt A 1.1.3 "Trenduntersuchungen extremer Niederschlagsereignisse in Baden-kWürttemberg und Bayern" AU - Albrecht, Franz M AU - Dietzer, Bernd CY - Offenbach DA - 2006/// PY - 2006 DP - Open WorldCat LA - German PB - Dt. Wetterdienst, Abt. Hydrometeorologie SN - 3-88148-412-4 978-3-88148-412-1 ST - Langzeitverhalten der Starkniederschläge in Baden-Württemberg und Bayern UR - http://d-nb.info/981242987/about/html ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changing cyclones and surface wind speeds over the North-Atlantic and Europe in a transient GHG experiment. AU - Knippertz, P. AU - Ulbrich, Uwe AU - Speth, P. T2 - Climate Research AB - A 240 yr run of the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled ocean-atmosphere model with transient greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing according to the IPCC IS92a scenario is examined with respect to sim- ulated changes in boreal winter cyclone activity and 10 m wind speeds over Europe, the North Atlantic and Eastern North America. It is found that simulated cyclone activity undergoes a pronounced north- and eastward shift over Europe and the Northeast Atlantic. This shift is accompanied by a decrease in the number of weak cyclones and an increase in deep cyclones (with core pressures below 970 hPa) in this area. The cyclone signal corresponds to the changes in storm track activity and upper-tropospheric baroclinicity. Increases of mean wind speeds and of wind speed extremes are identified over Northern Europe and parts of the East Atlantic. The wind signal is due to an increase in wind speed variability and an intensification of the westerly mean current connected with an enhanced mean pressure gradi- ent. It is shown that the rising number of extreme wind events in the GHG simulation is connected to the augmented occurrence of deep cyclones over Northern Europe and the adjacent ocean areas. There are also strong wind speed increases over Hudson Bay and the Greenland Sea. They are restricted to the planetary boundary layer and appear to be connected to the reduction in winter mean sea-ice cover, which leads to locally decreased static stability and — over the Greenland Sea — also to a reduction in surface roughness. DA - 2000/// PY - 2000 VL - 15 SP - 109 EP - 122 UR - http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr/15/c015p109.pdf Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:16:53 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. AU - Kharin, V.V. AU - Zwiers, F. W. T2 - Journal of Climate DA - 2005/// PY - 2005 IS - 18 SP - 43 LA - en UR - http://www.cccma.ec.gc.ca/papers/fzwiers/kz_2003.pdf Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:10:59 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Central European precipitation and temperature extremes in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation types AU - Jacobeit, Jucundus AU - Rathmann, Joachim AU - Philipp, Aandreas AU - Jones, Philip D. T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift AB - There is increasing concern that precipitation and temperature extremes may be changing in frequency and character as a result of changing climate, and the latter is mostly linked with particular changes in the atmospheric circulation. Therefore the question arises – a key question in the climate change prospective – as to how precipitation and temperature extremes are related to large-scale atmospheric circulation types? To study such relationships over an extended period of more than one and a half centuries, we include daily precipitation and temperature time series compiled during the EU project EMULATE (European and North Atlantic daily to multidecadal climate variability) back to 1850 as well as daily mean SLP reconstructions from the same project for the same period. The latter data set has been used for classifying daily circulation types for each season using a simulated annealing clustering technique. Comparing each of these circulation types with their percentages among extreme days and among non-extreme days (with respect to precipitation or temperature) clearly reveals that in most cases only a few of the seasonal circulation types are conducive to the occurrence of daily extremes. This is shown for heavy precipitation and positive temperature extremes (beyond the 98th percentile in each case), related to the winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons for a central European region. Different circulation patterns proved to be important in this context. Thus, in contrast to positive temperature extremes during winter being linked preferably to zonal circulation patterns (positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), heavy winter precipitation in central Europe is distinctly associated with less zonal patterns characterized by an eastward or southeastward shift of the subpolar centre of low pressure implying only weak correlations with the NAO. Furthermore, particular indices reveal that changing frequencies of extremes are not only due to corresponding frequency changes of these conducive circulation types, but also to changes of their association to precipitation or temperature extremes (reflected by changes in the percentage of extremes related to the overall occurrence of the corresponding circulation type). These within-type changes of circulation types often govern the low-frequency variations in the overall incidence of extremes. German Verbreitet wird damit gerechnet, dass Häufigkeit und Eigenschaften von Niederschlags- und Temperaturextremen sich ändern, wenn das globale Klima einem Wandel unterworfen ist. Da letzteres zumeist mit Änderungen in der atmosphärischen Zirkulation einhergeht, stellt sich die Schlüsselfrage, wie diese Extreme in Beziehung stehen zu großskaligen Zirkulationstypen. Um dies für den ausgedehnten Zeitraum seit Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts zu untersuchen, wird auf Datenaätze aus dem EU-Projekt EMULATE zurückgegriffen (European and North Atlantic daily to multidecadal climate variability), sowohl hinsichtlich täglich aufgelöster mitteleuropäischer Niederschlags- und Temperaturzeitreihen als auch rekonstruierter täglicher Bodenluftdruckfelder für den nordatlantisch-europäischen Großraum. Auf deren Basis sind während des genannten Projekts tägliche Zirkulationstypen für jede Jahreszeit mittels einer Clustermethode bestimmt worden, die auf sog. ,simulated annealing' beruht. Vergleicht man für jeden dieser Zirkulationstypen seine Prozentanteile an den Extremtagen und an den nicht-extremen Tagen (bezüglich Niederschlag bzw. Temperatur), stellt sich klar heraus, dass in den meisten Fällen nur wenige der Zirkulationstypen begünstigend für das Auftreten von Extremen sind. Dies wird konkret für Starkniederschläge und positive Temperaturextreme (jeweils jenseits des 98 % Perzentils) im mitteleuropäischen Winter (DJF) und Sommer (JJA) gezeigt. Dabei ergeben sich folgende Differenzierungen: während positive Temperaturextreme im Winter vorwiegend mit zonalen Zirkulationsmustern verbunden sind, die der positiven Phase der Nordatlantischen Oszillation (NAO) entsprechen, sind winterliche Starkniederschläge in Mitteleuropa mit weniger zonalen Strömungskonfigurationen assoziiert, die durch eine ost- oder südostgerichtete Verlagerung des subpolaren Tiefdruckzentrums bei nur mehr geringen Korrelationen mit der NAO gekennzeichnet sind. Weiterhin zeigen spezifische Indizes, dass Häufigkeitsänderungen von Extremen nicht nur auf entsprechende Auftretensänderungen der begünstigenden Zirkulationstypen zurückzuführen sind, sondern auch auf typinterne Änderungen bei diesen Zirkulationstypen (erkenntlich an variablen Anteilen extremer Tage an der Gesamtzahl der Auftretenstage des betreffenden Zirkulationstyps). Diese zirkulationstypinternen Änderungen bestimmen sogar häufig die niederfrequenten Schwankungen im Gesamtauftreten von Niederschlags- bzw. Temperaturextremen. DA - 2009/// PY - 2009 DO - 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0390 DP - IngentaConnect VL - 18 IS - 4 SP - 397 EP - 410 J2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift UR - http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2009/00000018/00000004/art00004 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The median winter snowline in the Alps AU - Hantel, Michael AU - Maurer, Christian T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift DA - 2011/06/01/ PY - 2011 DO - 10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0495 DP - CrossRef VL - 20 IS - 3 SP - 267 EP - 276 LA - en SN - 09412948 UR - http://openurl.ingenta.com/content/xref?genre=article&issn=0941-2948&volume=20&issue=3&spage=267 Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:38:31 ER - TY - RPRT TI - Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis (INCA) System description AU - Haiden, T. AU - Kann, A. AU - Pistotnik, G. AU - Stadlbacher, K. AU - Wittmann, C. DA - 2010/// PY - 2010 SP - 60 LA - Englisch PB - Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, Vienna, Austria UR - http://www.zamg.ac.at/fix/INCA_system.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Regional changes in surface climate interannual variability for the 21st century from ensembles of global model simulations AU - Giorgi, F. AU - Bi, X. T2 - Geophysical Research Letters DA - 2005/// PY - 2005 DO - 10.1029/2005GL023002 DP - CrossRef VL - 32 IS - 13 LA - en SN - 0094-8276 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2005GL023002 Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:30:30 ER - TY - JOUR TI - An analysis of global model projections over Italy, with particular attention to the Italian Greater Alpine Region (GAR) AU - Faggian, Paola AU - Giorgi, Filippo T2 - Climatic Change DA - 2009/// PY - 2009 DO - 10.1007/s10584-009-9584-4 DP - CrossRef VL - 96 IS - 1-2 SP - 239 EP - 258 LA - en SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-009-9584-4 Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:18:16 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols AU - Douville, H. AU - Chauvin, F. AU - Planton, S. AU - Royer, J.-F. AU - Salas-Mélia, D. AU - Tyteca, S. T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2002/// PY - 2002 DO - 10.1007/s00382-002-0259-3 DP - CrossRef VL - 20 IS - 1 SP - 45 EP - 68 SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002ClDy...20...45D Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:15:55 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Four climate change scenarios for the Indian summer monsoon by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM AU - Dobler, A. AU - Ahrens, B. T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research DA - 2011/12/17/ PY - 2011 DO - 10.1029/2011JD016329 DP - CrossRef VL - 116 IS - D24 LA - en SN - 0148-0227 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011JD016329 Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:15:21 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and Their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments AU - Clark, Robin T. AU - Brown, Simon J. AU - Murphy, James M. T2 - Journal of Climate DA - 2006/09// PY - 2006 DO - 10.1175/JCLI3877.1 DP - CrossRef VL - 19 IS - 17 SP - 4418 EP - 4435 LA - en SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3877.1 Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:13:45 ER - TY - JOUR TI - European temperatures in CMIP5: origins of present-day biases and future uncertainties AU - Cattiaux, Julien AU - Douville, Hervé AU - Peings, Yannick T2 - Climate Dynamics AB - European temperatures and their projected changes under the 8.5 W/m2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario are evaluated in an ensemble of 33 global climate models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Respective contributions of large-scale dynamics and local processes to both biases and changes in temperatures, and to the inter-model spread, are then investigated from a recently proposed methodology based on weather regimes. On average, CMIP5 models exhibit a cold bias in winter, especially in Northern Europe. They overestimate summer temperatures in Central Europe, in association with a greater diurnal range than observed. The projected temperature increase is stronger in summer than in winter, with the highest summer warming occurring over Mediterranean regions. Links between biases and sensitivities are evidenced in winter, suggesting a potential influence of snow cover biases on the projected surface warming. A brief analysis of daily temperature extremes suggests that the intra-seasonal variability is projected to decrease (slightly increase) in winter (summer). Then, in order to understand model discrepancies in both present-day and future climates, we disentangle effects of large-scale atmospheric dynamics and regional physical processes. In particular, in winter, CMIP5 models simulate a stronger North-Atlantic jet stream than observed and, in contrast with CMIP3 results, the majority of them suggests an increased frequency of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation under future warming. While large-scale circulation only has a minor contribution to ensemble-mean biases or changes, which are primarily dominated by non-dynamical processes, it substantially affects the inter-model spread. Finally, other sources of uncertainties, including the North-Atlantic warming and local radiative feedbacks related to snow cover and clouds, are briefly discussed. DA - 2013/12/01/ PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y DP - link.springer.com VL - 41 IS - 11-12 SP - 2889 EP - 2907 J2 - Clim Dyn LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 ST - European temperatures in CMIP5 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1731-y Y2 - 2014/04/11/11:12:27 KW - Climatology KW - Geophysics/Geodesy KW - Oceanography KW - Climate sensitivity KW - European temperatures KW - Global climate models KW - Model evaluation KW - North-Atlantic dynamics ER - TY - SLIDE TI - Evaluation of the present and future general circulation over Greenland simulated by the IPCC AR5/CMIP5 GCMs with the help of a circulation type classification. EGU2011-1206, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011 T2 - EGU2011-1206, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011 A2 - Belleflamme, Alexandre A2 - Fettweis, Xavier A2 - Erpicum, Michel DA - 2011/// PY - 2011 LA - en UR - http://orbi.ulg.ac.be/handle/2268/88679 Y2 - 2014/04/11/10:32:20 ER - TY - SLIDE TI - How well do IPCC AR4 models simulate circulation types? EGU2011-1206, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011 T2 - EGU2011-1206, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011 A2 - Casado, María J. A2 - Pastor, María A. DA - 2011/// PY - 2011 UR - http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2011/EGU2011-1206.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Regional temperature variability in the European Alps: 1760–1998 from homogenized instrumental time series AU - Böhm, Reinhard AU - Auer, Ingeborg AU - Brunetti, Michele AU - Maugeri, Maurizio AU - Nanni, Teresa AU - Schöner, Wolfgang T2 - International Journal of Climatology AB - This paper investigates temperature variability in the Alps and their surroundings based on 97 instrumental series of monthly mean temperatures. A discussion of the initial homogenizing procedure illustrates its advantages and risks. A comparison of the homogenized series with the original series clearly shows the necessity to homogenize. Each of the original series had breaks (an average of five per series) and the mean of all series was systematically biased by non-climatic noise. This noise has subdued the long-term amplitude of the temperature evolution in the region by 0.5 K. The relatively high spatial resolution of the data enabled a regionalization within the study area of 680 000 km2 into six sub-regions based on principal component analysis of the monthly series. Long-term temperature evolution proved to be highly similar across the region—thus making a mean series (averaged over all 97 single series) representative of the study area. Trend analysis (based on progressive forward and backward Mann–Kendall statistics and on progressive analysis of linear regression coefficients) was performed on seasonal and annual series. The results diverge from those of global datasets. This is mainly due to the extension of the 240-year Alpine dataset by 100 years prior to the mid-19th century, and also due to the advantages of a dense and homogenized regional dataset. The long-term features include an initial decrease of the annual and seasonal series to a minimum followed by a positive trend until 1998. The minima are 1890 for the entire year and winter, 1840 for spring and 1920 for summer and autumn, respectively. The initial decreasing trend is more evident in spring and summer, less in autumn and smallest in winter. The mean annual temperature increase since 1890 in the Alps is 1.1 K, which is twice as much as the 0.55 K in the respective grid boxes of the most frequently used global dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia. To enable an easier and more systematic handling of the dataset, these data have been interpolated to a 1°×1° longitude–latitude grid. The 105 low-elevation and 16 high-elevation grid point series are widely available without restrictions for scientific research and can be obtained from the authors. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society DA - 2001/11/30/ PY - 2001 DO - 10.1002/joc.689 DP - Wiley Online Library VL - 21 IS - 14 SP - 1779 EP - 1801 J2 - Int. J. Climatol. LA - en SN - 1097-0088 ST - Regional temperature variability in the European Alps UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.689/abstract Y2 - 2014/04/11/10:59:12 KW - trends KW - instrumental period KW - gridded dataset KW - homogeneity KW - regionalization KW - temperature time series ER - TY - JOUR TI - Novel methods for inferring future changes in extreme rainfall over Northern Europe AU - Benestad, Rasmus E. T2 - Climate Research AB - ABSTRACT: Empirical studies show that observed frequencies nP for a daily precipitation amount P can be approximated by nP ∝ emP, with negative values for the exponential coefficient m. The parameter m describes the mean (μ) or any quantile for variables following such exponential distributions. The coefficient m varies from location to location, and exhibits a systematic relationship with local mean temperature and precipitation as well as other geographical parameters. A general linear model can be utilised to model μ directly from local climate conditions and geography. Estimates of m and μ from local climatic conditions allow an estimation of extreme values in the form of high percentiles. Given changes in the mean local climate, it is possible to infer changes in the upper percentiles. A new multi-model ensemble of the most recent climate simulations, carried out for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report (IPCC AR4), has been subjected to empirical-statistical downscaling, and provides best estimates for the continuing trends in mean temperatures and precipitation in northern Europe. These scenarios are used in conjunction with (1) the established relationship between the exponential coefficient m on the distribution function, and (2) local mean temperature and precipitation for 2050, to infer changes in the 95th percentiles of the rainfall for 2050. Two new independent analyses point towards an increase in the number of extreme precipitation events and a slight change in the number of rainy days over large parts of the Nordic countries. The projected increase was found to be sensitive to to the choice of predictors used to model the geographical dependency, rather than to the choice of method. DA - 2007/09/18/ PY - 2007 DO - 10.3354/cr00693 DP - Inter-Research Science Center VL - 34 IS - 3 SP - 195 EP - 210 J2 - Clim Res UR - http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v34/n3/p195-210/ Y2 - 2014/04/11/10:58:23 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Quantifying uncertainty in changes in extreme event frequency in response to doubled CO2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations AU - Barnett, David N. AU - Brown, Simon J. AU - Murphy, James M. AU - Sexton, David M. H. AU - Webb, Mark J. T2 - Climate Dynamics AB - We discuss equilibrium changes in daily extreme surface air temperature and precipitation events in response to doubled atmospheric CO2, simulated in an ensemble of 53 versions of HadSM3, consisting of the HadAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean. By virtue of its size and design, the ensemble, which samples uncertainty arising from the parameterisation of atmospheric physical processes and the effects of natural variability, provides a first opportunity to quantify the robustness of predictions of changes in extremes obtained from GCM simulations. Changes in extremes are quantified by calculating the frequency of exceedance of a fixed threshold in the 2 × CO2 simulation relative to the 1 × CO2 simulation. The ensemble-mean value of this relative frequency provides a best estimate of the expected change while the range of values across the ensemble provides a measure of the associated uncertainty. For example, when the extreme threshold is defined as the 99th percentile of the 1 × CO2 distribution, the global-mean ensemble-mean relative frequency of extremely warm days is found to be 20 in January, and 28 in July, implying that events occurring on one day per hundred under present day conditions would typically occur on 20–30 days per hundred under 2 × CO2 conditons. However the ensemble range in the relative frequency is of similar magnitude to the ensemble-mean value, indicating considerable uncertainty in the magnitude of the increase. The relative frequencies in response to doubled CO2 become smaller as the threshold used to define the extreme event is reduced. For one variable (July maximum daily temperature) we investigate this simulated variation with threshold, showing that it can be quite well reproduced by assuming the response to doubling CO2 to be characterised simply as a uniform shift of a Gaussian distribution. Nevertheless, doubling CO2 does lead to changes in the shape of the daily distributions for both temperature and precipitation, but the effect of these changes on the relative frequency of extreme events is generally larger for precipitation. For example, around one-fifth of the globe exhibits ensemble-mean decreases in time-averaged precipitation accompanied by increases in the frequency of extremely wet days. The ensemble range of changes in precipitation extremes (relative to the ensemble mean of the changes) is typically larger than for temperature extremes, indicating greater uncertainty in the precipitation changes. In the global average, extremely wet days are predicted to become twice as common under 2 × CO2 conditions. We also consider changes in extreme seasons, finding that simulated increases in the frequency of extremely warm or wet seasons under 2 × CO2 are almost everywhere greater than the corresponding increase in daily extremes. The smaller increases in the frequency of daily extremes is explained by the influence of day-to-day weather variability which inflates the variance of daily distributions compared to their seasonal counterparts. DA - 2006/04/01/ PY - 2006 DO - 10.1007/s00382-005-0097-1 DP - link.springer.com VL - 26 IS - 5 SP - 489 EP - 511 J2 - Clim Dyn LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-005-0097-1 Y2 - 2014/04/11/10:30:37 KW - Climate change KW - Meteorology/Climatology KW - Geophysics/Geodesy KW - Oceanography KW - Extreme events KW - Ensemble KW - General circulation model KW - Parametrisation KW - Perturbed physics KW - uncertainty ER - TY - JOUR TI - Scandinavian storminess since about 1800 AU - Bärring, Lars AU - von Storch, H. T2 - Geophysical Research Letters DA - 2004/// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1029/2004GL020441 DP - CrossRef VL - 31 IS - 20 LA - en SN - 0094-8276 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2004GL020441 Y2 - 2014/04/11/10:29:23 ER - TY - RPRT TI - Trends of storms in NW Europe derived from an updated pressure data set. AU - Alexandersson, H. AU - Tuomenvirta, Heikki AU - Schmith, Torben AU - Iden, Knut T2 - Climate Research 14 DA - 2000/// PY - 2000 SP - 71 EP - 73 UR - http://www.hvonstorch.de/klima/pdf/alexandersson.etal.2000.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: Model results and statistical correction according to observed values AU - Déqué, Michel T2 - Global and Planetary Change AB - Météo-France atmospheric model ARPEGE/Climate has been used to simulate present climate (1961–1990) and a possible future climate (2071–2100) through two ensembles of three 30-year numerical experiments. In the scenario experiment, the greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations are prescribed by the so-called SRES-A2 hypotheses, whereas the sea surface temperature and sea ice extent come from an earlier ocean–atmosphere coupled simulation. The model covers the whole globe, with a variable resolution reaching 50 to 60 km over France. Model responses on daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation are analyzed over France. The distribution of daily values is compared with observed data from the French climatological network. The extreme cold temperatures and summer heavy precipitations are underestimated by the model. A correction technique is proposed in order to adjust the simulated values according to the observed ones. This process is applied to both reference and scenario simulation. Synthetic indices of extreme events are calculated with corrected simulations. The number of heavy rain (> 10 mm) days increases by one quarter in winter. The maximum length of summer dry episodes increases by one half in summer. The number of heat wave days is multiplied by 10. The response in precipitation is less when only the change in the mean is considered. Such a corrected simulation is useful to feed impact models which are sensitive to threshold values, but the correction does not reduce, and may enhance in some cases, the uncertainty about the climate projections. Using several models and scenarios is the appropriate technique to deal with uncertainty. DA - 2007/05// PY - 2007 DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.11.030 DP - ScienceDirect VL - 57 IS - 1–2 SP - 16 EP - 26 J2 - Global and Planetary Change SN - 0921-8181 ST - Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818106002748 Y2 - 2013/11/11/07:33:24 KW - Numerical simulation KW - extreme values KW - numerical simulation KW - regional climate KW - scenario ER - TY - GEN TI - Ist die Zunahme von Starkniederschlägen auf veränderte Wetterlagen zurückzuführen?, GAW Brief des Deutschen Wetterdienstes Nr 12 AU - Fricke, W. AU - Kaminski, U. DA - 2002/09// PY - 2002 UR - http://www.dwd.de/bvbw/generator/DWDWWW/Content/Forschung/FEHP/GAW/DL/GAW__BRIEFE/gaw__brief__012__de__pdf,templateId=raw,property=publicationFile.pdf/gaw_brief_012_de_pdf.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation extremes. AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C. AU - Zwiers, F. W. AU - Stott, Peter A. AU - Kharin, V. V. T2 - Journal of Climate AB - Abstract This paper discusses a study of temperature and precipitation indices that may be suitable for the early detection of anthropogenic change in climatic extremes. Anthropogenic changes in daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation over land simulated with two different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are analyzed. The use of data from two models helps to assess which changes might be robust between models. Indices are calculated that scan the transition from mean to extreme climate events within a year. Projected changes in temperature extremes are significantly different from changes in seasonal means over a large fraction (39%–66%) of model grid points. Therefore, the detection of changes in seasonal mean temperature cannot be substituted for the detection of changes in extremes. The estimated signal-to-noise ratio for changes in extreme temperature is nearly as large as for changes in mean temperature. Both models simulate extreme precipitation changes that are stronger than the corresponding changes in mean precipitation. Climate change patterns for precipitation are quite different between the models, but both models simulate stronger increases of precipitation for the wettest day of the year (4.1% and 8.8%, respectively, over land) than for annual mean precipitation (0% and 0.7%, respectively). A signal-to-noise analysis suggests that changes in moderately extreme precipitation should become more robustly detectable given model uncertainty than changes in mean precipitation. DA - 2004/// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3683:DOACIA>2.0.CO;2 VL - 17 IS - 19 SP - 3683 EP - 3700 SN - 0894-8755 UR - http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.158.8305&rep=rep1&type=pdf ER - TY - SLIDE TI - A high-resolution 1961–1990 monthly temperature climatology for the greater Alpine region. T2 - 9th ECAM A2 - Hiebl, J. A2 - Auer, I. A2 - Böhm, R. A2 - Schöner, W A2 - Maugeri, M. A2 - Lentini, Gianluca A2 - Spinoni, Jonathan A2 - Brunetti, Michele A2 - Nanni, Teresa A2 - Percec Tadíc, Melita A2 - Bihari, Zita A2 - Dolinar, Mojca A2 - Müller-Westermeier, G. CY - Toulouse DA - 2009/// PY - 2009 LA - en UR - http://www.emetsoc.org/fileadmin/ems/dokumente/annual_meetings/2009/CL1_EMS2009-79.pdf Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:01:11 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880 AU - Della-Marta, P. M. AU - Haylock, M. R. AU - Luterbacher, J. AU - Wanner, H. T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research DA - 2007/08/03/ PY - 2007 DO - 10.1029/2007JD008510 DP - CrossRef VL - 112 IS - D15 LA - en SN - 0148-0227 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2007JD008510 Y2 - 2014/05/22/10:55:43 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe AU - Hirschi, Martin AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I. AU - Alexandrov, Vesselin AU - Boberg, Fredrik AU - Boroneant, Constanta AU - Christensen, Ole B. AU - Formayer, Herbert AU - Orlowsky, Boris AU - Stepanek, Petr T2 - Nature Geoscience AB - Climate change is expected to affect not only the means of climatic variables, but also their variabilities and extremes such as heat waves. In particular, modelling studies have postulated a possible impact of soil-moisture deficit and drought on hot extremes. Such effects could be responsible for impending changes in the occurrence of heat waves in Europe. Here we analyse observational indices based on measurements at 275 meteorological stations in central and southeastern Europe, and on publicly available gridded observations. We find a relationship between soil-moisture deficit, as expressed by the standardized precipitation index, and summer hot extremes in southeastern Europe. This relationship is stronger for the high end of the distribution of temperature extremes. We compare our results with simulations of current climate models and find that the models correctly represent the soil-moisture impacts on temperature extremes in southeastern Europe, but overestimate them in central Europe. Given the memory associated with soil moisture storage, our findings may help with climate-change-adaptation measures, such as early-warning and prediction tools for extreme heat waves. DA - 2011/01// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1038/ngeo1032 DP - www.nature.com VL - 4 IS - 1 SP - 17 EP - 21 J2 - Nature Geosci LA - en SN - 1752-0894 UR - http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n1/abs/ngeo1032.html Y2 - 2014/05/22/10:54:21 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Land–atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe AU - Seneviratne, Sonia I. AU - Lüthi, Daniel AU - Litschi, Michael AU - Schär, Christoph T2 - Nature AB - Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to enhance the interannual variability of summer climate in Europe and other mid-latitude regions, potentially causing more frequent heatwaves. Climate models consistently predict an increase in the variability of summer temperatures in these areas, but the underlying mechanisms responsible for this increase remain uncertain. Here we explore these mechanisms using regional simulations of recent and future climatic conditions with and without land–atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate that the increase in summer temperature variability predicted in central and eastern Europe is mainly due to feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that land–atmosphere interactions increase climate variability in this region because climatic regimes in Europe shift northwards in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a new transitional climate zone with strong land–atmosphere coupling in central and eastern Europe. These findings emphasize the importance of soil-moisture–temperature feedbacks (in addition to soil-moisture–precipitation feedbacks) in influencing summer climate variability and the potential migration of climate zones with strong land–atmosphere coupling as a consequence of global warming. This highlights the crucial role of land–atmosphere interactions in future climate change. DA - 2006/09/14/ PY - 2006 DO - 10.1038/nature05095 DP - www.nature.com VL - 443 IS - 7108 SP - 205 EP - 209 J2 - Nature LA - en SN - 0028-0836 UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v443/n7108/abs/nature05095.html Y2 - 2014/05/22/10:52:35 ER - TY - SLIDE TI - Clustering of Extreme Storms [http://www.eurandom.nl/events/workshops/2009/Climate/stephenson.pdf] T2 - KNMI/Eurandom Workshop „Climate Change and Extreme Value Theory“ A2 - Stephenson, David A2 - Vitolo, Renato A2 - Ferro, Chris CY - Eindhoven DA - 2009/05// PY - 2009 LA - English M3 - Presentation UR - http://www.eurandom.nl/events/workshops/2009/Climate/stephenson.pdf Y2 - 2013/10/08/ ER - TY - JOUR TI - Projected evolution of circulation types and their temperatures over Central Europe in climate models AU - Plavcová, Eva AU - Kyselý, Jan T2 - Theoretical and Applied Climatology DA - 2013/11// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00704-013-0874-4 DP - CrossRef VL - 114 IS - 3-4 SP - 625 EP - 634 LA - en SN - 0177-798X, 1434-4483 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-013-0874-4 Y2 - 2014/05/22/10:45:15 ER - TY - BOOK TI - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AU - Nakicenovic, N. AU - Alcamo, Joseph AU - Davis, Gerald AU - de Vries, Bert AU - Fenhann, Joergen AU - Gaffin, Stuart AU - Gregory, Kenneth AU - Grübler, Arnulf AU - Jung, Tae Yong AU - Kram, Tom AU - La Rovere, Emilio Lebre AU - Michaelis, Laurie AU - Mori, Shunsuke AU - Morita, Tsuneyuki AU - Pepper, William AU - Pitcher, Hugh AU - Price, Lynn AU - Riahi, K. AU - Roehrl, Alexander AU - Rogner, Hans-Holger AU - Sankovski, Alexei AU - Schlesinger, Michael AU - Shukla, Priyadarshi AU - Smith, Steven AU - Swart, Robert AU - van Rooijen, Sascha AU - Victor, Nadejda AU - Dadi, Zhou A3 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa A3 - Swart, Robert CY - Cambridge, UK DA - 2000/// PY - 2000 PB - Cambridge University Press UR - http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area AU - Suklitsch, Martin AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Truhetz, Heimo AU - Awan, Nauman Khurshid AU - Göttel, Holger AU - Jacob, Daniela T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2011/07// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s00382-010-0848-5 DP - CrossRef VL - 37 IS - 1-2 SP - 377 EP - 390 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0848-5 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:59:43 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models AU - Wilcke, Renate Anna Irma AU - Mendlik, Thomas AU - Gobiet, Andreas T2 - Climatic Change AB - Climate change impact research needs regional climate scenarios of multiple meteorological variables. Those variables are available from regional climate models (RCMs), but affected by considerable biases. We evaluate the application of an empirical-statistical error correction method, quantile mapping (QM), for a small ensemble of RCMs and six meteorological variables. Annual and monthly biases are reduced to close to zero by QM for all variables in most cases. Exceptions are found, if non-stationarity of the model’s error characteristics occur. Even in the worst cases of non-stationarity, QM clearly improves the biases of raw RCMs. In addition, QM successfully adjusts the distributions of the analysed variables. To approach the question whether time series and inter-variable relationships are still plausible after correction, we evaluate the root-mean-square error (RMSE), autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. We found improvement or no clear effect in RMSE and autocorrelation, and no clear effect on the correlation between meteorological variables. These results demonstrate that QM retains the quality of the temporal structure in time series and the inter-variable dependencies of RCMs. It has to be emphasised that this cannot be interpreted as an improvement and that deficiencies of the RCMs in those features are retained as well. Our results give some indication for the performance of QM applied to future scenarios, since our evaluation relies on independent calibration and evaluation periods, which are affected by climate variability and change. The effect of non-stationarity, however, can be expected to be larger in far future. We demonstrate the retainment of the RCM’s temporal structure and inter-variable dependencies, and large improvements in biases. This qualifies QM as a valuable, though not perfect, method in the interface between climate models and climate change impact research. Nonetheless, in case of no correlation between re-analysis driven RCM and observation, one should consider that QM does not correct this correlation. DA - 2013/10/01/ PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0845-x DP - link.springer.com VL - 120 IS - 4 SP - 871 EP - 887 J2 - Climatic Change LA - en SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0845-x Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:56:43 KW - Atmospheric Sciences KW - Climate change impacts ER - TY - CHAP TI - MODIS-based snow cover products, validation and hydrologic applications AU - Parajka, Juraj AU - Blöschl, G. T2 - Multiscale Hydrologic Remote Sensing A2 - Chang, N.B. A2 - Hong, Y. DA - 2012/// PY - 2012 DP - crcnetbase.com (Atypon) SP - 185 EP - 212 PB - CRC Press SN - 978-1-4398-7745-6 UR - http://www.crcnetbase.com/isbn/9781439877456 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:45:42 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Agnotology: learning from mistakes AU - Benestad, R. E. AU - Hygen, H. O. AU - van Dorland, R. AU - Cook, J. AU - Nuccitelli, D. T2 - Earth System Dynamics AB - Replication is an important part of science, and by repeating past analyses, we show that a number of papers in the scientific literature contain severe methodological flaws which can easily be identified through simple tests and demonstrations. In many cases, shortcomings are related to a lack of robustness, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather an artifact of a particular experimental set-up. Some examples presented here have ignored data that do not fit the conclusions, and in several other cases, inappropriate statistical methods have been adopted or conclusions have been based on misconceived physics. These papers may serve as educational case studies for why certain analytical approaches sometimes are unsuitable in providing reliable answers. They also highlight the merit of replication. A lack of common replication has repercussions for the quality of the scientific literature, and may be a reason why some controversial questions remain unanswered even when ignorance could be reduced. Agnotology is the study of such ignorance. A free and open-source software is provided for demonstration purposes. DA - 2013/05/03/ PY - 2013 DO - 10.5194/esdd-4-451-2013 DP - Copernicus Online Journals VL - 4 IS - 1 SP - 451 EP - 505 SN - 2190-4995 ST - Agnotology UR - http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/4/451/2013/ Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:43:19 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Summertime inter-annual temperature variability in an ensemble of regional model simulations: analysis of the surface energy budget AU - Lenderink, G. AU - Ulden, A. AU - Hurk, B. AU - Meijgaard, E. T2 - Climatic Change DA - 2007/// PY - 2007 DO - 10.1007/s10584-006-9229-9 DP - CrossRef VL - 81 IS - S1 SP - 233 EP - 247 LA - en SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 ST - Summertime inter-annual temperature variability in an ensemble of regional model simulations UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-006-9229-9 Y2 - 2014/04/11/12:28:25 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes AU - Lenderink, Geert AU - van Meijgaard, Erik T2 - Nature Geoscience DA - 2008/08// PY - 2008 DO - 10.1038/ngeo262 DP - CrossRef VL - 1 IS - 8 SP - 511 EP - 514 SN - 1752-0894, 1752-0908 UR - http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo262 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:39:52 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains AU - Mahoney, Kelly AU - Alexander, Michael A. AU - Thompson, Gregory AU - Barsugli, Joseph J. AU - Scott, James D. T2 - Nature Climate Change DA - 2012/01/10/ PY - 2012 DO - 10.1038/nclimate1344 DP - CrossRef VL - 2 IS - 2 SP - 125 EP - 131 SN - 1758-678X, 1758-6798 UR - http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1344 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:35:18 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Mortality and displaced mortality during heat waves in the Czech Republic AU - Kyselý, Jan T2 - International journal of biometeorology AB - The aims of this study were to assess impacts of hot summer periods on mortality in the Czech Republic and to quantify the size of the short-term displacement effect which resulted in lower than expected mortality after heat waves. The analysis covered the period 1982-2000 when several extraordinarily hot summers occurred in central Europe. Daily total all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the entire population of the Czech Republic (approximately 10 million inhabitants) were examined. The daily death counts were standardized to account for the long-term decline in mortality and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Heat-related mortality is better expressed if 1-day lag after temperature is considered compared to the unlagged relationship. With the 1-day lag, both excess total mortality and excess CVD mortality were positive during all 17 heat waves, and in 14 (12) heat waves the increase in total (CVD) mortality was statistically significant ( P=0.05). The mean relative rise in total mortality during heat waves was 13%. The response was greater in females than males and similar regardless of whether total or CVD mortality was used. The largest relative increases, exceeding 20% in both total and CVD mortality, were associated with heat waves which occurred in early summer (the first half of July 1984 and June 1994). The mortality displacement effect played an important role since mortality tended to be lower than expected after hot periods. The mean net mortality change due to heat waves was estimated to be about a 1% increase in the number of deaths. The large relative increases during some heat waves were particularly noteworthy since the study (in contrast to most analyses of the heat stress/mortality relationship) was not restricted to an urban area and/or an elderly population. DA - 2004/11// PY - 2004 DO - 10.1007/s00484-004-0218-2 DP - NCBI PubMed VL - 49 IS - 2 SP - 91 EP - 97 LA - eng SN - 0020-7128 KW - Mortality KW - Adolescent KW - Adult KW - Aged KW - Child KW - Child, Preschool KW - Female KW - Humans KW - Infant KW - Infant, Newborn KW - Male KW - Middle Aged KW - Seasons KW - Climate KW - Cardiovascular Diseases KW - Czech Republic KW - Hot Temperature KW - Retrospective Studies KW - Risk Factors ER - TY - JOUR TI - 21st century climate change in the European Alps—A review AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Kotlarski, Sven AU - Beniston, Martin AU - Heinrich, Georg AU - Rajczak, Jan AU - Stoffel, Markus T2 - Science of The Total Environment AB - Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500–2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. DA - 2014/// PY - 2014 DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.050 DP - ScienceDirect J2 - Science of The Total Environment SN - 0048-9697 UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969713008188 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:27:28 KW - Alpine region KW - Climate change KW - Snow KW - drought KW - Extremes KW - Natural hazards ER - TY - JOUR TI - Predictor-sensitive empirical downscaling. An example in complex topographic terrain AU - Matulla, C. T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift DA - 2005/// PY - 2005 VL - 14 IS - 1 SP - 31 EP - 47 ER - TY - RPRT TI - ALOCLIM-Austrian Long-term Climate 1767-2000.Multiple Instrumental Climate time series from Central Europe. AU - Auer, I. AU - Böhm, R. AU - Schöner, W. T2 - Österreichische Beiträge zu Meteorologie und Geophysik. Heft 25 CY - Wien DA - 2001/// PY - 2001 PB - Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik SN - 395 UR - http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp/download/abstract/Auer-etal-2001b-F.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - HISTALP—historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region AU - Auer, Ingeborg AU - Böhm, Reinhard AU - Jurkovic, Anita AU - Lipa, Wolfgang AU - Orlik, Alexander AU - Potzmann, Roland AU - Schöner, Wolfgang AU - Ungersböck, Markus AU - Matulla, Christoph AU - Briffa, Keith AU - Jones, Phil AU - Efthymiadis, Dimitrios AU - Brunetti, Michele AU - Nanni, Teresa AU - Maugeri, Maurizio AU - Mercalli, Luca AU - Mestre, Olivier AU - Moisselin, Jean-Marc AU - Begert, Michael AU - Müller-Westermeier, Gerhard AU - Kveton, Vit AU - Bochnicek, Oliver AU - Stastny, Pavel AU - Lapin, Milan AU - Szalai, Sándor AU - Szentimrey, Tamás AU - Cegnar, Tanja AU - Dolinar, Mojca AU - Gajic-Capka, Marjana AU - Zaninovic, Ksenija AU - Majstorovic, Zeljko AU - Nieplova, Elena T2 - International Journal of Climatology DA - 2007/01// PY - 2007 DO - 10.1002/joc.1377 DP - CrossRef VL - 27 IS - 1 SP - 17 EP - 46 LA - en SN - 08998418, 10970088 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.1377 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:15:48 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions AU - Hawkins, Ed AU - Sutton, Rowan T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society DA - 2009/08// PY - 2009 DO - 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 DP - CrossRef VL - 90 IS - 8 SP - 1095 EP - 1107 LA - en SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:04:37 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change AU - Hawkins, Ed AU - Sutton, Rowan T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2011/07// PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 DP - CrossRef VL - 37 IS - 1-2 SP - 407 EP - 418 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:05:02 ER - TY - JOUR TI - RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C AU - Van Vuuren, Detlef P. AU - Stehfest, Elke AU - Elzen, Michel G. J. den AU - Kram, Tom AU - Vliet, Jasper van AU - Deetman, Sebastiaan AU - Isaac, Morna AU - Goldewijk, Kees Klein AU - Hof, Andries AU - Beltran, Angelica Mendoza AU - Oostenrijk, Rineke AU - Ruijven, Bas van T2 - Climatic Change AB - The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO2 gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases. DA - 2011/11/01/ PY - 2011 DO - 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3 DP - link.springer.com VL - 109 IS - 1-2 SP - 95 EP - 116 J2 - Climatic Change LA - en SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480 ST - RCP2.6 UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3 Y2 - 2014/05/28/11:02:23 KW - Meteorology/Climatology ER - TY - JOUR TI - Multisite downscaling of daily precipitation with a stochastic weather generator AU - Wilks, D. S. T2 - Climate Research DA - 1999/// PY - 1999 VL - 11 SP - 125 EP - 136 UR - http://iri.columbia.edu/~kv2169/ERFS_India/Mahabubnagar_Workshop_May%202009/ERFS_CD/Ref/Wilks1999.pdf ER - TY - JOUR TI - The Analog Method as a Simple Statistical Downscaling Technique: Comparison with More Complicated Methods AU - Zorita, Eduardo AU - von Storch, Hans T2 - Journal of Climate AB - Abstract The derivation of local scale information from integrations of coarse-resolution general circulation models (GCM) with the help of statistical models fitted to present observations is generally referred to as statistical downscaling. In this paper a relatively simple analog method is described and applied for downscaling purposes. According to this method the large-scale circulation simulated by a GCM is associated with the local variables observed simultaneously with the most similar large-scale circulation pattern in a pool of historical observations. The similarity of the large-scale circulation patterns is defined in terms of their coordinates in the space spanned by the leading observed empirical orthogonal functions. The method can be checked by replicating the evolution of the local variables in an independent period. Its performance for monthly and daily winter rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula is compared to more complicated techniques, each belonging to one of the broad families of existing statistical downscaling techniques: a method based on canonical correlation analysis, as representative of linear methods; a method based on classification and regression trees, as representative of a weather generator based on classification methods; and a neural network, as an example of deterministic nonlinear methods. It is found in these applications that the analog method performs in general as well as the more complicated methods, and it can be applied to both normally and nonnormally distributed local variables. Furthermore, it produces the right level of variability of the local variable and preserves the spatial covariance between local variables. On the other hand linear multivariate methods offer a clearer physical interpretation that supports more strongly its validity in an altered climate. Classification and neural networks are generally more complicated methods and do not directly offer a physical interpretation. DA - 1999/08/01/ PY - 1999 DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<2474:TAMAAS>2.0.CO;2 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) VL - 12 IS - 8 SP - 2474 EP - 2489 SN - 0894-8755 ST - The Analog Method as a Simple Statistical Downscaling Technique UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012%3C2474%3ATAMAAS%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Y2 - 2014/05/28/10:20:50 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Stochastic Characterization of Regional Circulation Patterns for Climate Model Diagnosis and Estimation of Local Precipitation AU - Zorita, Eduardo AU - Hughes, James P. AU - Lettemaier, Dennis P. AU - von Storch, Hans T2 - Journal of Climate AB - Abstract Two statistical approaches for linking large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and daily local rainfall are applied to GCM (general circulation model) climate simulations. The ultimate objective is to simulate local precipitation associated with altered climate regimes. Two regions, one in the Pacific-American sector (western region) and one in the American-Mid-Atlantic sector (eastern region), are explored. The first method is based on Classification and Regression Trees (CART) analysis. The CART method classifies observed daily sea level pressure (SLP) fields into weather types that are most strongly associated with the presence/absence of rainfall at selected index stations. After applying this method to historical SLP observations, precipitation simulations associated with GCM SLP output were validated in terms of probability of occurrence and survival time of the weather states identified by the CART analysis. Daily rainfall time series were then generated from weather classes derived by application of CART to both daily SLP fields derived from historical observation and from GCM simulations. While the mean rainfall and probability distributions were rather well replicated, the precipitation generator based on this version of the CART technique had two important deficiencies: the generated dry periods were too short, on average, and the identification of weather states may be not invariant under coordinate rotations. The second rainfall generator is based on the analog method and uses information about the evolution of the SLP field from several previous days. It considers a pool of past observations for the circulation patterns closest to the target circulation. It is similar to the CART method and in certain aspects it performs better, although some downward bias in the simulated rainfall persistence was still present. Applying both methods to the output of a 2 × CO2 GCM simulation produced only small changes in simulated precipitation, which is due to the small sensitivity of this variable to greenhouse forcing. The selection characteristics of the analogs are similar for observations, a control run, and a 2 × CO2 run, indicating that analogs for possible altered climates can be found in the historical record. DA - 1995/05/01/ PY - 1995 DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1023:SCORCP>2.0.CO;2 DP - journals.ametsoc.org (Atypon) VL - 8 IS - 5 SP - 1023 EP - 1042 SN - 0894-8755 UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008%3C1023%3ASCORCP%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Y2 - 2014/05/28/10:18:08 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate AU - Leckebusch, Gregor C. AU - Ulbrich, Uwe AU - Fröhlich, Luise AU - Pinto, Joaquim G. T2 - Geophysical Research Letters DA - 2007/03/02/ PY - 2007 DO - 10.1029/2006GL027663 DP - CrossRef VL - 34 IS - 5 LA - en SN - 0094-8276 UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2006GL027663 Y2 - 2014/05/28/10:12:24 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Strong interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon in the Late Miocene AU - Tang, Hui AU - Eronen, Jussi T. AU - Micheels, Arne AU - Ahrens, Bodo T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2013/07// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00382-012-1655-y DP - CrossRef VL - 41 IS - 1 SP - 135 EP - 153 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-012-1655-y Y2 - 2014/05/28/10:06:10 ER - TY - JOUR TI - The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project AU - Vautard, Robert AU - Gobiet, Andreas AU - Jacob, Daniela AU - Belda, Michal AU - Colette, Augustin AU - Déqué, Michel AU - Fernández, Jesús AU - García-Díez, Markel AU - Goergen, Klaus AU - Güttler, Ivan AU - Halenka, Tomáš AU - Karacostas, Theodore AU - Katragkou, Eleni AU - Keuler, Klaus AU - Kotlarski, Sven AU - Mayer, Stephanie AU - Meijgaard, Erik AU - Nikulin, Grigory AU - Patarčić, Mirta AU - Scinocca, John AU - Sobolowski, Stefan AU - Suklitsch, Martin AU - Teichmann, Claas AU - Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten AU - Wulfmeyer, Volker AU - Yiou, Pascal T2 - Climate Dynamics DA - 2013/11// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z DP - CrossRef VL - 41 IS - 9-10 SP - 2555 EP - 2575 LA - en SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894 UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z Y2 - 2014/05/27/10:34:54 ER - TY - JOUR TI - Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates AU - Rogelj, Joeri AU - Meinshausen, Malte AU - Knutti, Reto T2 - Nature Climate Change AB - Climate projections for the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were based on scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and simulations of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Since then, a new set of four scenarios (the representative concentration pathways or RCPs) was designed. Climate projections in the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) will be based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which incorporates the latest versions of climate models and focuses on RCPs. This implies that by AR5 both models and scenarios will have changed, making a comparison with earlier literature challenging. To facilitate this comparison, we provide probabilistic climate projections of both SRES scenarios and RCPs in a single consistent framework. These estimates are based on a model set-up that probabilistically takes into account the overall consensus understanding of climate sensitivity uncertainty, synthesizes the understanding of climate system and carbon-cycle behaviour, and is at the same time constrained by the observed historical warming. DA - 2012/04// PY - 2012 DO - 10.1038/nclimate1385 DP - www.nature.com VL - 2 IS - 4 SP - 248 EP - 253 J2 - Nature Clim. Change LA - en SN - 1758-678X UR - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n4/full/nclimate1385.html Y2 - 2014/05/27/10:33:28 KW - Atmospheric science KW - Modelling and statistics KW - Projection and prediction KW - Meteorology ER - TY - JOUR TI - Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections AU - Knutti, Reto AU - Sedláček, Jan T2 - Nature Climate Change DA - 2013/// PY - 2013 DO - 10.1038/nclimate1716 DP - CrossRef VL - 3 IS - 4 SP - 369 EP - 373 SN - 1758-678X, 1758-6798 UR - http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1716 Y2 - 2014/05/27/10:29:49 ER - TY - CONF TI - Aufbereitung von Klimaszenarien für die Klimafolgenforschung AU - Formayer, Herbert T2 - 4. Österreichischer MeteorologInnentag C1 - Klagenfurt am Wörthersee C3 - Tagungsband des 4. Österreichischen MeteorologInnentag DA - November 3, 2011a PY - November 3, 2011a UR - http://www.kiks.ktn.gv.at/230197_DE-PDF-Meteorologentag_Tagungsband.pdf ER - TY - BOOK TI - ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project A3 - Van der Linden, P. A3 - Mitchell, J. F. B. CY - Exeter, UK. DA - 2009/// PY - 2009 DP - Google Scholar SP - 160pp. PB - Met Office Hadley Centre ST - ENSEMBLES UR - http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature/ensembles-climate-change-and-its ER -