TY - JOUR
TI - Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set
AU - Morice, Colin P.
AU - Kennedy, John J.
AU - Rayner, Nick A.
AU - Jones, Phil D.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research
DA - 2012/04/17/
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1029/2011JD017187
DP - CrossRef
VL - 117
IS - D8
SN - 0148-0227
ST - Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2011JD017187
Y2 - 2013/08/23/11:55:21
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Atmospheric temperature change detection with GPS radio occultation 1995 to 2008
AU - Steiner, A. K.
AU - Kirchengast, G.
AU - Lackner, B. C.
AU - Pirscher, B.
AU - Borsche, M.
AU - Foelsche, U.
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
DA - 2009/09/22/
PY - 2009
DO - 10.1029/2009GL039777
DP - CrossRef
VL - 36
IS - 18
SN - 0094-8276
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2009GL039777
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:33:20
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Consistency of modelled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere
AU - Santer, B. D.
AU - Thorne, P. W.
AU - Haimberger, L.
AU - Taylor, K. E.
AU - Wigley, T. M. L.
AU - Lanzante, J. R.
AU - Solomon, S.
AU - Free, M.
AU - Gleckler, P. J.
AU - Jones, P. D.
AU - Karl, T. R.
AU - Klein, S. A.
AU - Mears, C.
AU - Nychka, D.
AU - Schmidt, G. A.
AU - Sherwood, S. C.
AU - Wentz, F. J.
T2 - International Journal of Climatology
DA - 2008/11/15/
PY - 2008
DO - 10.1002/joc.1756
DP - CrossRef
VL - 28
IS - 13
SP - 1703
EP - 1722
SN - 08998418, 10970088
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.1756
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:14:11
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
AU - Keeling, Charles D.
AU - Bacastow, Robert B.
AU - Bainbridge, Arnold E.
AU - Ekdahl, Carl A.
AU - Guenther, Peter R.
AU - Waterman, Lee S.
AU - Chin, John F. S.
T2 - Tellus
AB - The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii is reported for eight years (1964–1971) of a long term program to document the effects of the combustion of coal, petroleum, and natural gas on the distribution of CO2 in the atmosphere. The new data, when combined with earlier data, indicate that the annual average CO2 concentration rose 3.4% between 1959 and 1971. The rate of rise, however, has not been steady. In the mid-1960's it declined. Recently it has accelerated. Similar changes in rate have been observed at the South Pole and are evidently a global phenomenon.
DA - 1976///
PY - 1976
DO - 10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 28
IS - 6
SP - 538
EP - 551
LA - en
SN - 2153-3490
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00701.x/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/19:47:24
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy
AU - Thorne, Peter W.
AU - Lanzante, John R.
AU - Peterson, Thomas C.
AU - Seidel, Dian J.
AU - Shine, Keith P.
T2 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
DA - 2011/01//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1002/wcc.80
DP - CrossRef
VL - 2
IS - 1
SP - 66
EP - 88
SN - 17577780
ST - Tropospheric temperature trends
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.80
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:45:21
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate
AU - Kalnay, Eugenia
AU - Cai, Ming
T2 - Nature
AB - The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture. But it has been difficult to separate these two influences because both tend to increase the daily mean surface temperature. The impact of urbanization has been estimated by comparing observations in cities with those in surrounding rural areas, but the results differ significantly depending on whether population data or satellite measurements of night light are used to classify urban and rural areas. Here we use the difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years, which is insensitive to surface observations, to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming. Our results suggest that half of the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use changes. Moreover, our estimate of 0.27 °C mean surface warming per century due to land-use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone.
DA - 2003///
PY - 2003
DO - 10.1038/nature01675
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 423
IS - 6939
SP - 528
EP - 531
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v423/n6939/abs/nature01675.html
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
KW - Climate change
KW - ecology
KW - immunology
KW - evolution
KW - developmental biology
KW - science
KW - earth science
KW - environmental science
KW - astronomy
KW - astrophysics
KW - biochemistry
KW - bioinformatics
KW - biology
KW - biotechnology
KW - cancer
KW - cell cycle
KW - cell signalling
KW - computational biology
KW - development
KW - DNA
KW - drug discovery
KW - evolutionary biology
KW - functional genomics
KW - genetics
KW - genomics
KW - geophysics
KW - interdisciplinary science
KW - life
KW - marine biology
KW - materials science
KW - medical research
KW - medicine
KW - metabolomics
KW - molecular biology
KW - molecular interactions
KW - nanotechnology
KW - Nature
KW - neurobiology
KW - neuroscience
KW - palaeobiology
KW - pharmacology
KW - physics
KW - proteomics
KW - quantum physics
KW - RNA
KW - science news
KW - science policy
KW - signal transduction
KW - structural biology
KW - systems biology
KW - transcriptomics
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
AU - Compo, G. P.
AU - Whitaker, J. S.
AU - Sardeshmukh, P. D.
AU - Matsui, N.
AU - Allan, R. J.
AU - Yin, X.
AU - Gleason, B. E.
AU - Vose, R. S.
AU - Rutledge, G.
AU - Bessemoulin, P.
AU - Brönnimann, S.
AU - Brunet, M.
AU - Crouthamel, R. I.
AU - Grant, A. N.
AU - Groisman, P. Y.
AU - Jones, P. D.
AU - Kruk, M. C.
AU - Kruger, A. C.
AU - Marshall, G. J.
AU - Maugeri, M.
AU - Mok, H. Y.
AU - Nordli, ø.
AU - Ross, T. F.
AU - Trigo, R. M.
AU - Wang, X. L.
AU - Woodruff, S. D.
AU - Worley, S. J.
T2 - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
DA - 2011/01//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1002/qj.776
DP - CrossRef
VL - 137
IS - 654
SP - 1
EP - 28
SN - 00359009
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.776
Y2 - 2013/08/22/12:38:32
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise
AU - Meehl, Gerald A.
AU - Hu, Aixue
AU - Tebaldi, Claudia
AU - Arblaster, Julie M.
AU - Washington, Warren M.
AU - Teng, Haiyan
AU - Sanderson, Benjamin M.
AU - Ault, Toby
AU - Strand, Warren G.
AU - White, James B.
T2 - Nature Climate Change
DA - 2012/07/01/
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1038/nclimate1529
DP - CrossRef
VL - 2
IS - 8
SP - 576
EP - 580
SN - 1758-678X, 1758-6798
UR - http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1529
Y2 - 2013/08/23/11:45:46
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
AU - Moss, Richard H.
AU - Edmonds, Jae A.
AU - Hibbard, Kathy A.
AU - Manning, Martin R.
AU - Rose, Steven K.
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
AU - Carter, Timothy R.
AU - Emori, Seita
AU - Kainuma, Mikiko
AU - Kram, Tom
AU - Meehl, Gerald A.
AU - Mitchell, John F. B.
AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
AU - Riahi, Keywan
AU - Smith, Steven J.
AU - Stouffer, Ronald J.
AU - Thomson, Allison M.
AU - Weyant, John P.
AU - Wilbanks, Thomas J.
T2 - Nature
AB - Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
DA - 2010///
PY - 2010
DO - 10.1038/nature08823
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 463
IS - 7282
SP - 747
EP - 756
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7282/abs/nature08823.html
Y2 - 2013/09/05/07:35:11
KW - Climate change
KW - ecology
KW - immunology
KW - evolution
KW - developmental biology
KW - science
KW - earth science
KW - environmental science
KW - astronomy
KW - astrophysics
KW - biochemistry
KW - bioinformatics
KW - biology
KW - biotechnology
KW - cancer
KW - cell cycle
KW - cell signalling
KW - computational biology
KW - development
KW - DNA
KW - drug discovery
KW - evolutionary biology
KW - functional genomics
KW - genetics
KW - genomics
KW - geophysics
KW - interdisciplinary science
KW - life
KW - marine biology
KW - materials science
KW - medical research
KW - medicine
KW - metabolomics
KW - molecular biology
KW - molecular interactions
KW - nanotechnology
KW - Nature
KW - neurobiology
KW - neuroscience
KW - palaeobiology
KW - pharmacology
KW - physics
KW - proteomics
KW - quantum physics
KW - RNA
KW - science news
KW - science policy
KW - signal transduction
KW - structural biology
KW - systems biology
KW - transcriptomics
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century
AU - Church, John A.
AU - White, Neil J.
T2 - Surveys in Geophysics
DA - 2011/03/30/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 32
IS - 4-5
SP - 585
EP - 602
SN - 0169-3298, 1573-0956
UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10712-011-9119-1
Y2 - 2013/08/22/12:45:53
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Earth system models: an overview
AU - Flato, Gregory M.
T2 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
DA - 2011/11//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1002/wcc.148
DP - CrossRef
VL - 2
IS - 6
SP - 783
EP - 800
SN - 17577780
ST - Earth system models
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.148
Y2 - 2013/08/22/17:24:55
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Refractivity and temperature climate records from multiple radio occultation satellites consistent within 0.05%
AU - Foelsche, U.
AU - Scherllin-Pirscher, B.
AU - Ladstädter, F.
AU - Steiner, A. K.
AU - Kirchengast, G.
T2 - Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
DA - 2011/09/28/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.5194/amt-4-2007-2011
DP - CrossRef
VL - 4
IS - 9
SP - 2007
EP - 2018
SN - 1867-8548
UR - http://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/4/2007/2011/
Y2 - 2013/08/23/05:10:39
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 1. Measurement and sampling uncertainties
AU - Kennedy, J. J.
AU - Rayner, N. A.
AU - Smith, R. O.
AU - Parker, D. E.
AU - Saunby, M.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research
DA - 2011/07/22/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1029/2010JD015218
DP - CrossRef
VL - 116
IS - D14
SN - 0148-0227
ST - Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010JD015218
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes
AU - Min, Seung-Ki
AU - Zhang, Xuebin
AU - Zwiers, Francis W.
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C.
T2 - Nature
DA - 2011/02/17/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1038/nature09763
DP - CrossRef
VL - 470
IS - 7334
SP - 378
EP - 381
SN - 0028-0836, 1476-4687
UR - http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature09763
Y2 - 2013/08/23/11:52:58
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences
AU - Stanhill, Gerald
AU - Cohen, Shabtai
T2 - Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
DA - 2001/04//
PY - 2001
DO - 10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00241-0
DP - CrossRef
VL - 107
IS - 4
SP - 255
EP - 278
SN - 01681923
ST - Global dimming
UR - http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0168192300002410
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:30:50
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land
AU - Jones, P. D.
AU - Groisman, P. Ya.
AU - Coughlan, M.
AU - Plummer, N.
AU - Wang, W-C.
AU - Karl, T. R.
T2 - Nature
DA - 1990/09/13/
PY - 1990
DO - 10.1038/347169a0
DP - CrossRef
VL - 347
IS - 6289
SP - 169
EP - 172
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v347/n6289/pdf/347169a0.pdf
Y2 - 2013/09/12/11:41:54
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty
AU - Loeb, Norman G.
AU - Lyman, John M.
AU - Johnson, Gregory C.
AU - Allan, Richard P.
AU - Doelling, David R.
AU - Wong, Takmeng
AU - Soden, Brian J.
AU - Stephens, Graeme L.
T2 - Nature Geoscience
DA - 2012/01/22/
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1038/ngeo1375
DP - CrossRef
VL - 5
IS - 2
SP - 110
EP - 113
SN - 1752-0894, 1752-0908
UR - http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo1375
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Decadal potential predictability of twenty-first century climate
AU - Boer, G.J.
T2 - Climate Dynamics
AB - Decadal prediction of the coupled climate system is potentially possible given enough information and knowledge. Predictability will reside in both externally forced and in long timescale internally generated variability. The "potential predictability" investigated here is characterized by the fraction of the total variability accounted for by these two components in the presence of short-timescale unpredictable "noise" variability. Potential predictability is not a classical measure of predictability nor a measure of forecast skill but it does identify regions where long timescale variability is an appreciable fraction of the total and hence where prediction on these scale may be possible. A multi-model estimate of the potential predictability variance fraction (ppvf) as it evolves through the first part of the twenty-first century is obtained using simulation data from the CMIP3 archive. Two estimates of potential predictability are used which depend on the treatment of the forced component. The multi-decadal estimate considers the magnitude of the forced component as the change from the beginning of the century and so becomes largely a measure of climate change as the century progresses. The next-decade estimate considers the change in the forced component from the past decade and so is more pertinent to an actual forecast for the next decade. Long timescale internally generated variability provides additional potential predictability beyond that of the forced component. The ppvf may be expressed in terms of a signal-to-noise ratio and takes on values between 0 and 1. The largest values of the ppvf for temperature are found over tropical and mid-latitude oceans, with the exception of the equatorial Pacific, and some but not all tropical land areas. Overall the potential predictability for temperature generally declines with latitude and is relatively low over mid- to high-latitude land. Potential predictability for precipitation is generally low and due almost entirely to the forced component and then mainly at high latitudes. To the extent that the multi-model ppvf reflects both the behaviour of the actual climate system and the possibility of decadal prediction, the results give some indication as to where and to what extent decadal forecasts might be possible. © 2010 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada.
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1007/s00382-010-0747-9
DP - Scopus
VL - 36
IS - 5-6
SP - 1119
EP - 1133
LA - English
SN - 09307575
N1 - Cited By (since 1996):7
N1 - Cited By (since 1996):7
KW - Climate change
KW - Climate forecasting
KW - Decadal prediction
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Temperature response in the Altai region lags solar forcing
AU - Eichler, Anja
AU - Olivier, Susanne
AU - Henderson, Keith
AU - Laube, Andreas
AU - Beer, Jürg
AU - Papina, Tatyana
AU - Gäggeler, Heinz W.
AU - Schwikowski, Margit
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
DA - 2009/01/15/
PY - 2009
DO - 10.1029/2008GL035930
DP - CrossRef
VL - 36
IS - 1
SN - 0094-8276
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2008GL035930
Y2 - 2013/08/22/13:37:04
ER -
TY - CHAP
TI - Climate Models and Their Evaluation.
AU - Randall, D.A.
AU - Wood, R.A.
AU - Bony, S.
AU - Colman, R.
AU - Fichefet, T.
AU - Fyfe, J.
AU - Kattsov, V.
AU - Pitman, J.
AU - Shukla, J.
AU - Srinivasan, J.
AU - Stouffer, R.J.
AU - Sumi, A.
AU - Taylor, K.E.
T2 - Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
A2 - Solomon, Susan
A2 - Qin, D.
A2 - Manning, M.
A2 - Chen, Z.
A2 - Marquis, M.
A2 - Averyt, M.
A2 - Tignor, M.
A2 - Miller, H.L.
CN - QC981.8.C5 C511345 2007
CY - Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
DA - 2007///
PY - 2007
DP - Library of Congress ISBN
PB - Cambridge University Press
SN - 978-0-521-88009-1
UR - http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf
N1 - This chapter should be cited as:
Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouf
fer, A. Sumi
and K.E. Taylor, 2007: Cilmate Models and Their Evaluation. In:
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning,
Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
KW - Climatic changes
KW - Environmental aspects
KW - International cooperation
KW - greenhouse gases
KW - Government policy
KW - Greenhouse gas mitigation
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Exploring Earth's atmosphere with radio occultation: contributions to weather, climate and space weather
AU - Anthes, R. A.
T2 - Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
DA - 2011/06/16/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.5194/amt-4-1077-2011
DP - CrossRef
VL - 4
IS - 6
SP - 1077
EP - 1103
SN - 1867-8548
ST - Exploring Earth's atmosphere with radio occultation
UR - http://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/4/1077/2011/
Y2 - 2013/08/02/08:03:01
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia
AU - Mann, M. E.
AU - Zhang, Z.
AU - Hughes, M. K.
AU - Bradley, R. S.
AU - Miller, S. K.
AU - Rutherford, S.
AU - Ni, F.
T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DA - 2008/09/09/
PY - 2008
DO - 10.1073/pnas.0805721105
DP - CrossRef
VL - 105
IS - 36
SP - 13252
EP - 13257
SN - 0027-8424, 1091-6490
UR - http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0805721105
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The ERA-40 re-analysis
AU - Uppala, S. M.
AU - KÅllberg, P. W.
AU - Simmons, A. J.
AU - Andrae, U.
AU - Bechtold, V. Da Costa
AU - Fiorino, M.
AU - Gibson, J. K.
AU - Haseler, J.
AU - Hernandez, A.
AU - Kelly, G. A.
AU - Li, X.
AU - Onogi, K.
AU - Saarinen, S.
AU - Sokka, N.
AU - Allan, R. P.
AU - Andersson, E.
AU - Arpe, K.
AU - Balmaseda, M. A.
AU - Beljaars, A. C. M.
AU - Berg, L. Van De
AU - Bidlot, J.
AU - Bormann, N.
AU - Caires, S.
AU - Chevallier, F.
AU - Dethof, A.
AU - Dragosavac, M.
AU - Fisher, M.
AU - Fuentes, M.
AU - Hagemann, S.
AU - Hólm, E.
AU - Hoskins, B. J.
AU - Isaksen, L.
AU - Janssen, P. a. E. M.
AU - Jenne, R.
AU - Mcnally, A. P.
AU - Mahfouf, J.-F.
AU - Morcrette, J.-J.
AU - Rayner, N. A.
AU - Saunders, R. W.
AU - Simon, P.
AU - Sterl, A.
AU - Trenberth, K. E.
AU - Untch, A.
AU - Vasiljevic, D.
AU - Viterbo, P.
AU - Woollen, J.
T2 - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
AB - ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized.A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the ‘second-generation’ ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2005. The contributions of N. A. Rayner and R. W. Saunders are Crown copyright.
DA - 2005///
PY - 2005
DO - 10.1256/qj.04.176
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 131
IS - 612
SP - 2961
EP - 3012
LA - en
SN - 1477-870X
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/qj.04.176/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:32:34
KW - Data assimilation
KW - Numerical weather prediction
KW - Observing system
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - An apparent hiatus in global warming?
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
AU - Fasullo, John T.
T2 - Earth's Future
AB - Global warming first became evident beyond the bounds of natural variability in the 1970s, but increases in global mean surface temperatures have stalled in the 2000s. Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, create an energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) even as the planet warms to adjust to this imbalance, which is estimated to be 0.5–1 W m−2 over the 2000s. Annual global fluctuations in TOA energy of up to 0.2 W m−2 occur from natural variations in clouds, aerosols, and changes in the Sun. At times of major volcanic eruptions the effects can be much larger. Yet global mean surface temperatures fluctuate much more than these can account for. An energy imbalance is manifested not just as surface atmospheric or ground warming but also as melting sea and land ice, and heating of the oceans. More than 90% of the heat goes into the oceans and, with melting land ice, causes sea level to rise. For the past decade, more than 30% of the heat has apparently penetrated below 700 m depth that is traceable to changes in surface winds mainly over the Pacific in association with a switch to a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in 1999. Surface warming was much more in evidence during the 1976–1998 positive phase of the PDO, suggesting that natural decadal variability modulates the rate of change of global surface temperatures while sea-level rise is more relentless. Global warming has not stopped; it is merely manifested in different ways.
DA - 2013///
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1002/2013EF000165
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 1
IS - 1
SP - 19
EP - 32
LA - en
SN - 2328-4277
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000165/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:32:08
KW - global warming
KW - ENSO
KW - energy imbalance
KW - global temperatures
KW - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Modeling the mineral dust aerosol cycle in the climate system
AU - Tegen, Ina
T2 - Quaternary Science Reviews
AB - Soil dust aerosol is an important factor of the climatic system. In order to evaluate the different aspects of the climatic effects of dust, estimates of its highly variable atmospheric distribution need to be computed by transport models. Such models also provide important means of evaluating the processes that govern changes in dustiness during different climatic periods. While models of the modern dust cycle are currently capable of simulating first-order patterns of its global distribution, the parameterization of dust emission in these models is still crude, since input information about soil properties and wind events cannot be resolved at a global scale. Regional models could be useful for evaluating emission parameterizations, as well as dust transport and depositional processes close to source regions. No single existing data set fully describes all aspects of the dust cycle. Validation of modeled dust distributions must therefore include comparisons with different types of observational data. While the compilation of such observational data sets is crucial for model development, model results can, in turn, provide guidance for new measurements of dust properties, which will be useful for future investigation of the dust cycle and its climatic effects.
DA - 2003/09//
PY - 2003
DO - 10.1016/S0277-3791(03)00163-X
DP - ScienceDirect
VL - 22
IS - 18–19
SP - 1821
EP - 1834
J2 - Quaternary Science Reviews
SN - 0277-3791
UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S027737910300163X
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:30:51
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover: a research synthesis
AU - Stroeve, Julienne C.
AU - Serreze, Mark C.
AU - Holland, Marika M.
AU - Kay, Jennifer E.
AU - Malanik, James
AU - Barrett, Andrew P.
T2 - Climatic Change
DA - 2012///
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 110
IS - 3-4
SP - 1005
EP - 1027
SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480
ST - The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover
UR - http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:41:53
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Quantification of structural uncertainty in climate data records from GPS radio occultation
AU - Steiner, A. K.
AU - Hunt, D.
AU - Ho, S.-P.
AU - Kirchengast, G.
AU - Mannucci, A. J.
AU - Scherllin-Pirscher, B.
AU - Gleisner, H.
AU - von Engeln, A.
AU - Schmidt, T.
AU - Ao, C.
AU - Leroy, S. S.
AU - Kursinski, E. R.
AU - Foelsche, U.
AU - Gorbunov, M.
AU - Heise, S.
AU - Kuo, Y.-H.
AU - Lauritsen, K. B.
AU - Marquardt, C.
AU - Rocken, C.
AU - Schreiner, W.
AU - Sokolovskiy, S.
AU - Syndergaard, S.
AU - Wickert, J.
T2 - Atmos. Chem. Phys.
DA - 2013/02/06/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.5194/acp-13-1469-2013
DP - Copernicus Online Journals
VL - 13
IS - 3
SP - 1469
EP - 1484
J2 - Atmos. Chem. Phys.
SN - 1680-7324
UR - http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/1469/2013/
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:25:57
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - GPS radio occultation for climate monitoring and change detection
AU - Steiner, A. K.
AU - Lackner, B. C.
AU - Ladstädter, F.
AU - Scherllin-Pirscher, B.
AU - Foelsche, U.
AU - Kirchengast, G.
T2 - Radio Science
AB - Observation of the atmospheric climate and detection of changes require high quality data. Radio Occultation (RO) using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals is based on time measurements with precise atomic clocks. It provides a long-term stable and consistent data record with global coverage and favorable error characteristics. Highest quality and vertical resolution is given in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). RO data exist from the GPS/Met mission within 1995–1997, and continuous observations are available since 2001. We give a review on studies using RO data for climate monitoring and change detection in the UTLS and discuss RO characteristics and error estimates, climate change indicators, trend detection, and comparison to conventional upper-air data. These studies showed that RO parameters cover the whole UTLS with useful indicators of climate change, being most robust in the tropics. Refractivity is most sensitive in the lower stratosphere (LS) and tropopause region, pressure/geopotential height and temperature over the UTLS region. An emerging climate change signal in the RO record can be detected for geopotential height of pressure levels and for temperature, reflecting warming of the troposphere and cooling of the LS. The results are in agreement with trends in radiosonde and ERA-Interim records. Climate model trends basically agree as well but they show less warming/cooling contrast across the tropical tropopause. (Advanced) Microwave Sounding Unit LS bulk temperature anomalies show significant differences to RO. Overall, the quality of RO climate records is suitable to fulfill the requirements of a global climate change monitoring system.
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1029/2010RS004614
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 46
IS - 6
LA - en
SN - 1944-799X
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010RS004614/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:38:14
KW - atmospheric climate change
KW - climate trend detection
KW - climatologies
KW - radio occultation
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Evaluating the influence of different vegetation biomes on the global climate
AU - Snyder, P.K.
AU - Delire, C.
AU - Foley, J.A.
T2 - Climate Dynamics
DA - 2004/07/29/
PY - 2004
DO - 10.1007/s00382-004-0430-0
DP - CrossRef
VL - 23
IS - 3-4
SN - 0930-7575, 1432-0894
UR - http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ClDy...23..279S
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:24:24
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Long-term warming restructures Arctic tundra without changing net soil carbon storage
AU - Sistla, Seeta A.
AU - Moore, John C.
AU - Simpson, Rodney T.
AU - Gough, Laura
AU - Shaver, Gaius R.
AU - Schimel, Joshua P.
T2 - Nature
AB - High latitudes contain nearly half of global soil carbon, prompting interest in understanding how the Arctic terrestrial carbon balance will respond to rising temperatures. Low temperatures suppress the activity of soil biota, retarding decomposition and nitrogen release, which limits plant and microbial growth. Warming initially accelerates decomposition, increasing nitrogen availability, productivity and woody-plant dominance. However, these responses may be transitory, because coupled abiotic-biotic feedback loops that alter soil-temperature dynamics and change the structure and activity of soil communities, can develop. Here we report the results of a two-decade summer warming experiment in an Alaskan tundra ecosystem. Warming increased plant biomass and woody dominance, indirectly increased winter soil temperature, homogenized the soil trophic structure across horizons and suppressed surface-soil-decomposer activity, but did not change total soil carbon or nitrogen stocks, thereby increasing net ecosystem carbon storage. Notably, the strongest effects were in the mineral horizon, where warming increased decomposer activity and carbon stock: a /`biotic awakening/' at depth.
DA - 2013/05/15/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1038/nature12129
DP - www.nature.com
VL - advance online publication
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature12129.html
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:23:57
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The vertical and spatial structure of ENSO in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from GPS radio occultation measurements
AU - Scherllin-Pirscher, B.
AU - Deser, C.
AU - Ho, S.-P.
AU - Chou, C.
AU - Randel, W.
AU - Kuo, Y.-H.
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
DA - 2012/10/28/
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1029/2012GL053071
DP - CrossRef
VL - 39
IS - 20
SN - 00948276
ST - The vertical and spatial structure of ENSO in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere from GPS radio occultation measurements
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2012GL053071
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:22:24
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Seventy-six years of mean mass balance rates derived from recent and re-evaluated ice volume measurements on tropical Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya
AU - Prinz, Rainer
AU - Fischer, Andrea
AU - Nicholson, Lindsey
AU - Kaser, Georg
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - Lewis Glacier on Mt Kenya has a unique history of detailed study, making it among the best documented tropical glaciers. Here we present (i) a new ice volume determination based on a bedrock DEM constructed from GPR data acquisition and (ii) the glacier's mean mass balance rates over the last 76 years derived from volume and area estimates based on seven historical maps and the newly determined bedrock topography. Total ice volume in 2010 was 1.90 ± 0.30 × 106 m3 with a mean (maximum) ice depth of 18 ± 3 m (45 ± 3 m), which is one order of magnitude larger than previously published values. In 2010, the glacier had lost 90% (79%) of its 1934 glacier volume (area), with the highest rates of ice volume loss occurring around the turn of the century. Computed mean mass balance rates, covering the whole period of glaciological surveys of Lewis Glacier, provide the longest record of tropical glacier change and show that the mean mass balance rate varies consistently with global estimates, but the magnitude is always more negative than in other regions.
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1029/2011GL049208
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 38
IS - 20
SP - 20502
EP - 20507
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL049208/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:02:50
KW - ground penetrating radar
KW - glacier retreat
KW - ice volume
KW - tropical glacier
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods
AU - Meehl, Gerald A.
AU - Arblaster, Julie M.
AU - Fasullo, John T.
AU - Hu, Aixue
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
T2 - Nature Climate Change
AB - There have been decades, such as 2000–2009, when the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend (a hiatus period). However, the observed energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere for this recent decade indicates that a net energy flux into the climate system of about 1 W m−2 (refs 2, 3) should be producing warming somewhere in the system. Here we analyse twenty-first-century climate-model simulations that maintain a consistent radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere of about 1 W m−2 as observed for the past decade. Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface-temperature trend show that the ocean above 300 m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300 m takes up significantly more, compared with non-hiatus decades. The model provides a plausible depiction of processes in the climate system causing the hiatus periods, and indicates that a hiatus period is a relatively common climate phenomenon and may be linked to La Niña-like conditions.
DA - 2011/10//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1038/nclimate1229
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 1
IS - 7
SP - 360
EP - 364
J2 - Nature Clim. Change
LA - en
SN - 1758-678X
UR - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n7/full/nclimate1229.html
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:37:38
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010
AU - Levitus, S.
AU - Antonov, J. I.
AU - Boyer, T. P.
AU - Baranova, O. K.
AU - Garcia, H. E.
AU - Locarnini, R. A.
AU - Mishonov, A. V.
AU - Reagan, J. R.
AU - Seidov, D.
AU - Yarosh, E. S.
AU - Zweng, M. M.
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - We provide updated estimates of the change of ocean heat content and the thermosteric component of sea level change of the 0–700 and 0–2000 m layers of the World Ocean for 1955–2010. Our estimates are based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, and bathythermograph data corrected for instrumental biases. We have also used Argo data corrected by the Argo DAC if available and used uncorrected Argo data if no corrections were available at the time we downloaded the Argo data. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–2000 m layer increased by 24.0 ± 1.9 × 1022 J (±2S.E.) corresponding to a rate of 0.39 W m−2 (per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.09°C. This warming corresponds to a rate of 0.27 W m−2 per unit area of earth's surface. The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m−2(per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C. The World Ocean accounts for approximately 93% of the warming of the earth system that has occurred since 1955. The 700–2000 m ocean layer accounted for approximately one-third of the warming of the 0–2000 m layer of the World Ocean. The thermosteric component of sea level trend was 0.54 ± .05 mm yr−1 for the 0–2000 m layer and 0.41 ± .04 mm yr−1 for the 0–700 m layer of the World Ocean for 1955–2010.
DA - 2012///
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1029/2012GL051106
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 39
IS - 10
SP - 1944
EP - 8007
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051106/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
KW - ocean heat content
KW - climate variability
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The global carbon budget 1959–2011
AU - Le Quéré, C.
AU - Andres, R. J.
AU - Boden, T.
AU - Conway, T.
AU - Houghton, R. A.
AU - House, J. I.
AU - Marland, G.
AU - Peters, G. P.
AU - van der Werf, G. R.
AU - Ahlström, A.
AU - Andrew, R. M.
AU - Bopp, L.
AU - Canadell, J. G.
AU - Ciais, P.
AU - Doney, S. C.
AU - Enright, C.
AU - Friedlingstein, P.
AU - Huntingford, C.
AU - Jain, A. K.
AU - Jourdain, C.
AU - Kato, E.
AU - Keeling, R. F.
AU - Klein Goldewijk, K.
AU - Levis, S.
AU - Levy, P.
AU - Lomas, M.
AU - Poulter, B.
AU - Raupach, M. R.
AU - Schwinger, J.
AU - Sitch, S.
AU - Stocker, B. D.
AU - Viovy, N.
AU - Zaehle, S.
AU - Zeng, N.
T2 - Earth System Science Data
DA - 2013/05/08/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.5194/essd-5-165-2013
DP - CrossRef
VL - 5
IS - 1
SP - 165
EP - 185
SN - 1866-3516
UR - http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/5/165/2013/essd-5-165-2013.html
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:32:29
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
AU - Le Quéré, Corinne
AU - Raupach, Michael R.
AU - Canadell, Josep G.
AU - Al, Gregg Marland et
AU - Al, Corinne Le Quéré et
AU - Marland, Gregg
AU - Bopp, Laurent
AU - Ciais, Philippe
AU - Conway, Thomas J.
AU - Doney, Scott C.
AU - Feely, Richard A.
AU - Foster, Pru
AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre
AU - Gurney, Kevin
AU - Houghton, Richard A.
AU - House, Joanna I.
AU - Huntingford, Chris
AU - Levy, Peter E.
AU - Lomas, Mark R.
AU - Majkut, Joseph
AU - Metzl, Nicolas
AU - Ometto, Jean P.
AU - Peters, Glen P.
AU - Prentice, I. Colin
AU - Randerson, James T.
AU - Running, Steven W.
AU - Sarmiento, Jorge L.
AU - Schuster, Ute
AU - Sitch, Stephen
AU - Takahashi, Taro
AU - Viovy, Nicolas
AU - van der Werf, Guido R.
AU - Woodward, F. Ian
T2 - Nature Geoscience
AB - Efforts to control climate change require the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This can only be achieved through a drastic reduction of global CO2 emissions. Yet fossil fuel emissions increased by 29% between 2000 and 2008, in conjunction with increased contributions from emerging economies, from the production and international trade of goods and services, and from the use of coal as a fuel source. In contrast, emissions from land-use changes were nearly constant. Between 1959 and 2008, 43% of each year's CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere on average; the rest was absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the oceans. In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO2 by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO2 sinks are highly uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore crucial to reduce the uncertainties.
DA - 2009///
PY - 2009
DO - 10.1038/ngeo689
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 2
IS - 12
SP - 831
EP - 836
J2 - Nature Geosciences
LA - en
SN - 1752-0894
UR - http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change
AU - Lean, Judith
AU - Beer, Juerg
AU - Bradley, Raymond
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - Solar total and ultraviolet (UV) irradiances are reconstructed annually from 1610 to the present. This epoch includes the Maunder Minimum of anomalously low solar activity (circa 1645–1715) and the subsequent increase to the high levels of the present Modern Maximum. In this reconstruction, the Schwabe (11-year) irradiance cycle and a longer term variability component are determined separately, based on contemporary solar and stellar monitoring. The correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperature is 0.86 in the pre-industrial period from 1610 to 1800, implying a predominant solar influence. Extending this correlation to the present suggests that solar forcing may have contributed about half of the observed 0.55°C surface warming since 1860 and one third of the warming since 1970.
DA - 1995///
PY - 1995
DO - 10.1029/95GL03093
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 22
IS - 23
SP - 3195
EP - 3198
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
ST - Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/95GL03093/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:30:26
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling
AU - Kosaka, Yu
AU - Xie, Shang-Ping
T2 - Nature
AB - Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970–2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
DA - 2013/09/19/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1038/nature12534
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 501
IS - 7467
SP - 403
EP - 407
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v501/n7467/full/nature12534.html
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:09:00
KW - Atmospheric science
KW - Attribution
KW - Physical oceanography
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization
AU - Kennedy, J. J.
AU - Rayner, N. A.
AU - Smith, R. O.
AU - Parker, D. E.
AU - Saunby, M.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
AB - Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1029/2010JD015220
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 116
IS - D14
LA - en
SN - 2156-2202
ST - Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JD015220/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
KW - SST
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Short-term effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot, biofuel soot and gases, and methane on climate, Arctic ice, and air pollution health
AU - Jacobson, Mark Z.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
AB - This study examines the short-term (∼15 year) effects of controlling fossil-fuel soot (FS) (black carbon (BC), primary organic matter (POM), and S(IV) (H2SO4(aq), HSO4−, and SO42−)), solid-biofuel soot and gases (BSG) (BC, POM, S(IV), K+, Na+, Ca2+, Mg2+, NH4+, NO3−, Cl− and several dozen gases, including CO2 and CH4), and methane on global and Arctic temperatures, cloudiness, precipitation, and atmospheric composition. Climate response simulations were run with GATOR-GCMOM, accounting for both microphysical (indirect) and radiative effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation. The model treated discrete size-resolved aging and internal mixing of aerosol soot, discrete size-resolved evolution of clouds/precipitation from externally and internally mixed aerosol particles, and soot absorption in aerosols, clouds/precipitation, and snow/sea ice. Eliminating FS, FS+BSG (FSBSG), and CH4 in isolation were found to reduce global surface air temperatures by a statistically significant 0.3–0.5 K, 0.4–0.7 K, and 0.2–0.4 K, respectively, averaged over 15 years. As net global warming (0.7–0.8 K) is due mostly to gross pollutant warming from fossil-fuel greenhouse gases (2–2.4 K), and FSBSG (0.4–0.7 K) offset by cooling due to non-FSBSG aerosol particles (−1.7 to −2.3 K), removing FS and FSBSG may reduce 13–16% and 17–23%, respectively, of gross warming to date. Reducing FS, FSBSG, and CH4 in isolation may reduce warming above the Arctic Circle by up to ∼1.2 K, ∼1.7 K, and ∼0.9 K, respectively. Both FS and BSG contribute to warming, but FS is a stronger contributor per unit mass emission. However, BSG may cause 8 times more mortality than FS. The global e-folding lifetime of emitted BC (from all fossil sources) against internal mixing by coagulation was ∼3 h, similar to data, and that of all BC against dry plus wet removal was ∼4.7 days. About 90% of emitted FS BC mass was lost to internal mixing by coagulation, ∼7% to wet removal, ∼3% to dry removal, and a residual remaining airborne. Of all emitted plus internally mixed BC, ∼92% was wet removed and ∼8% dry removed, with a residual remaining airborne. The 20 and 100 year surface temperature response per unit continuous emissions (STRE) (similar to global warming potentials (GWPs)) of BC in FS were 4500–7200 and 2900–4600, respectively; those of BC in BSG were 2100–4000 and 1060–2020, respectively; and those of CH4 were 52–92 and 29–63, respectively. Thus, FSBSG may be the second leading cause of warming after CO2. Controlling FS and BSG may be a faster method of reducing Arctic ice loss and global warming than other options, including controlling CH4 or CO2, although all controls are needed.
DA - 2010///
PY - 2010
DO - 10.1029/2009JD013795
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 115
IS - D14
LA - en
SN - 2156-2202
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009JD013795/abstract
Y2 - 2013/09/24/
KW - climate
KW - arctic
KW - black carbon
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - The Science of Climate Change (AR2 WG 1 Report)
AU - IPCC
A3 - Houghton, J.T.
A3 - Meira Filho, L.G.
A3 - Callander, B.A.
A3 - Harris, N.
A3 - Kattenberg, A.
A3 - Maskell, K.
CN - TD885.5.G73 S7 2000
CY - Cambridge
DA - 1995///
PY - 1995
DP - Library of Congress ISBN
SP - 588
PB - Cambridge University Press
UR - https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sar/wg_I/ipcc_sar_wg_I_full_report.pdf
KW - Climatic changes
KW - Forecasting
KW - greenhouse gases
ER -
TY - CHAP
TI - Flow and balance of the polar ice sheets
AU - Huybrecht, P.
AU - Miller, H.
T2 - Observed Global Climate
A2 - Hantel, M.
T3 - Landolt-Boernstein New Series. Numerical data and functional relationships in Science and Technology
AB - The volume "Observed Global Climate" comprises a set of climate budget quantities, relevant for atmosphere and ocean (the "climate fluids") as well as for land and ice (the "climate solids"). Examples for budget quantities are ...
CY - Berlin, Heidelberg, New York
DA - 2005///
PY - 2005
DP - attachment
VL - 6
SP - 13/1
EP - 13
LA - Englisch
PB - Springer Verlag
SN - 978-3-540-20206-6
SV - Group V
UR - http://www.springer.com/physics/book/978-3-540-20206-6
Y2 - 2013/09/09/14:49:35
KW - Atmospheric Sciences
KW - Observed Global Climate
KW - Physics (general)
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Reproducibility of GPS radio occultation data for climate monitoring: Profile-to-profile inter-comparison of CHAMP climate records 2002 to 2008 from six data centers
AU - Ho, Shu-peng
AU - Hunt, Doug
AU - Steiner, Andrea K.
AU - Mannucci, Anthony J.
AU - Kirchengast, Gottfried
AU - Gleisner, Hans
AU - Heise, Stefan
AU - von Engeln, Axel
AU - Marquardt, Christian
AU - Sokolovskiy, Sergey
AU - Schreiner, William
AU - Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara
AU - Ao, Chi
AU - Wickert, Jens
AU - Syndergaard, Stig
AU - Lauritsen, Kent B.
AU - Leroy, Stephen
AU - Kursinski, Emil R.
AU - Kuo, Ying-Hwa
AU - Foelsche, Ulrich
AU - Schmidt, Torsten
AU - Gorbunov, Michael
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
AB - To examine the claim that Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) data are useful as a benchmark data set for climate monitoring, the structural uncertainties of retrieved profiles that result from different processing methods are quantified. Profile-to-profile comparisons of CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload) data from January 2002 to August 2008 retrieved by six RO processing centers are presented. Differences and standard deviations of the individual centers relative to the inter-center mean are used to quantify the structural uncertainty. Uncertainties accumulate in derived variables due to propagation through the RO retrieval chain. This is reflected in the inter-center differences, which are small for bending angle and refractivity increasing to dry temperature, dry pressure, and dry geopotential height. The mean differences of the time series in the 8 km to 30 km layer range from −0.08% to 0.12% for bending angle, −0.03% to 0.02% for refractivity, −0.27 K to 0.15 K for dry temperature, −0.04% to 0.04% for dry pressure, and −7.6 m to 6.8 m for dry geopotential height. The corresponding standard deviations are within 0.02%, 0.01%, 0.06 K, 0.02%, and 2.0 m, respectively. The mean trend differences from 8 km to 30 km for bending angle, refractivity, dry temperature, dry pressure, and dry geopotential height are within ±0.02%/5 yrs, ±0.02%/5 yrs, ±0.06 K/5 yrs, ±0.02%/5 yrs, and ±2.3 m/5 yrs, respectively. Although the RO-derived variables are not readily traceable to the international system of units, the high precision nature of the raw RO observables is preserved in the inversion chain.
DA - 2012///
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1029/2012JD017665
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 117
IS - D18
LA - en
SN - 2156-2202
ST - Reproducibility of GPS radio occultation data for climate monitoring
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JD017665/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/08:36:37
KW - radio occultation
KW - GPS
KW - reproducibility
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate science: The cause of the pause
AU - Held, Isaac M.
T2 - Nature
AB - A global climate model that factors in the observed temperature of the surface ocean in the eastern equatorial Pacific offers an explanation for the recent hiatus in global warming. See Letter p.403
DA - 2013/09/19/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1038/501318a
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 501
IS - 7467
SP - 318
EP - 319
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
ST - Climate science
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v501/n7467/full/501318a.html
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:12:03
KW - Climate sciences
KW - Ocean sciences
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele
AU - Zwiers, Francis
T2 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
AB - Most detection and attribution studies use climate models to determine both the expected ‘fingerprint’ of climate change and the uncertainty in the estimated magnitude of this fingerprint in observations, given the climate variability. This review discusses the role of models in detection and attribution, the associated uncertainties, and the robustness of results. Studies that use observations only make substantial assumptions to separate the components of observed changes due to radiative forcing from those due to internal climate variability. Results from observation-only studies are broadly consistent with those from fingerprint studies. Fingerprint studies evaluate the extent to which patterns of response to external forcing (fingerprints) from climate model simulations explain observed climate change in observations. Fingerprints are based on climate models of various complexities, from energy balance models to full earth system models. Statistical approaches range from simple comparisons of observations with model simulations to multi-regression methods that estimate the contribution of several forcings to observed change using a noise-reducing metric. Multi-model methods can address model uncertainties to some extent and we discuss how remaining uncertainties can be overcome. The increasing focus on detecting and attributing regional climate change and impacts presents both opportunities and challenges. Challenges arise because internal variability is larger on smaller scales, and regionally important forcings, such as from aerosols or land-use change, are often uncertain. Nevertheless, if regional climate change can be linked to external forcing, the results can be used to provide constraints on regional climate projections. WIREs Clim Change 2011 2 570–591 DOI: 10.1002/wcc.121For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1002/wcc.121
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 2
IS - 4
SP - 570
EP - 591
LA - en
SN - 1757-7799
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.121/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:11:10
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C.
AU - Crowley, Thomas J.
AU - Hyde, William T.
AU - Frame, David J.
T2 - Nature
AB - There is a Brief Communications Arising (01 March 2007) associated with this document
The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5–4.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 3–8). Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5–95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5–6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.
DA - 2006/04/20/
PY - 2006
DO - 10.1038/nature04679
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 440
IS - 7087
SP - 1029
EP - 1032
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v440/n7087/abs/nature04679.html
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:10:33
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The roles of aerosol, water vapor and cloud in future global dimming/brightening
AU - Haywood, Jim M.
AU - Bellouin, Nicolas
AU - Jones, Andy
AU - Boucher, Olivier
AU - Wild, Martin
AU - Shine, Keith P.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
AB - Observational evidence indicates significant regional trends in solar radiation at the surface in both all-sky and cloud-free conditions. Negative trends in the downwelling solar surface irradiance (SSI) have become known as ‘dimming’ while positive trends have become known as ‘brightening’. We use the Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2 climate model to model trends in cloud-free and total SSI from the pre-industrial to the present-day and compare these against observations. Simulations driven by CMIP5 emissions are used to model the future trends in dimming/brightening up to the year 2100. The modeled trends are reasonably consistent with observed regional trends in dimming and brightening which are due to changes in concentrations in anthropogenic aerosols and, potentially, changes in cloud cover owing to the aerosol indirect effects and/or cloud feedback mechanisms. The future dimming/brightening in cloud-free SSI is not only caused by changes in anthropogenic aerosols: aerosol impacts are overwhelmed by a large dimming caused by increases in water vapor. There is little trend in the total SSI as cloud cover decreases in the climate model used here, and compensates the effect of the change in water vapor. In terms of the surface energy balance, these trends in SSI are obviously more than compensated by the increase in the downwelling terrestrial irradiance from increased water vapor concentrations. However, the study shows that while water vapor is widely appreciated as a greenhouse gas, water vapor impacts on the atmospheric transmission of solar radiation and the future of global dimming/brightening should not be overlooked.
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1029/2011JD016000
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 116
IS - D20
LA - en
SN - 2156-2202
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016000/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/08:19:46
KW - aerosols
KW - global brightening
KW - global dimming
KW - water vapor
ER -
TY - CHAP
TI - Circulation of the global atmosphere
T2 - Observed Global Climate
A2 - Haimberger, Leopold
A2 - Hantel, Michael
T3 - Landolt-Börnstein Series: Numerical Data and Functional Relationships in Science and Technology - New Series
DA - 2005///
PY - 2005
VL - 6
SP - 9.1
EP - 9.35
PB - Springer (Berlin, Heidelberg, New York)
SN - 978-3-540-20206-6
SV - Group 5
UR - http://www.springer.com/physics/book/978-3-540-20206-6
Y2 - 2013/09/09/14:27:23
ER -
TY - RPRT
TI - Solar influences on climate
AU - Haigh, J. D.
CY - London
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
SP - 20
M3 - Briefing paper 5
PB - Grantham Institute on Climate Change
UR - https://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/climatechange/Public/pdfs/Briefing%20Papers/Solar%20Influences%20on%20Climate.pdf
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
AU - Forster, P.
AU - Ramaswamy, V.
AU - Artaxo, P.
AU - Berntsen, T.
AU - Betts, R.
AU - Fahey, D. W.
AU - Haywood, J.
AU - Lean, J.
AU - Lowe, D.C.
AU - Myhre, G.
AU - Nganga, J.
AU - Prinn, R.
AU - Raga, G.
AU - Schulz, M.
AU - Van Dorland, R.
A3 - Solomon, S.
A3 - Qin, D.
A3 - Manning, M.
A3 - Chen, Z.
A3 - Marquis, M.
A3 - Averyt, K.B.
A3 - Tignor, M.
A3 - Miller, H.L.
DA - 2007///
PY - 2007
PB - Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
UR - https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment
AU - Bond, T. C.
AU - Doherty, S. J.
AU - Fahey, D. W.
AU - Forster, P. M.
AU - Berntsen, T.
AU - DeAngelo, B. J.
AU - Flanner, M. G.
AU - Ghan, S.
AU - Kärcher, B.
AU - Koch, D.
AU - Kinne, S.
AU - Kondo, Y.
AU - Quinn, P. K.
AU - Sarofim, M. C.
AU - Schultz, M. G.
AU - Schulz, M.
AU - Venkataraman, C.
AU - Zhang, H.
AU - Zhang, S.
AU - Bellouin, N.
AU - Guttikunda, S. K.
AU - Hopke, P. K.
AU - Jacobson, M. Z.
AU - Kaiser, J. W.
AU - Klimont, Z.
AU - Lohmann, U.
AU - Schwarz, J. P.
AU - Shindell, D.
AU - Storelvmo, T.
AU - Warren, S. G.
AU - Zender, C. S.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
DA - 2013/06/16/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1002/jgrd.50171
DP - CrossRef
VL - 118
IS - 11
SP - 5380
EP - 5552
SN - 2169897X
ST - Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/jgrd.50171
Y2 - 2013/08/02/08:19:20
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model: influences of mean state, orography and eddy forcing
AU - Berckmans, Julie
AU - Woollings, Tim
AU - Demory, Marie-Estelle
AU - Vidale, Pier-Luigi
AU - Roberts, Malcolm
T2 - Atmospheric Science Letters
AB - An underestimate of atmospheric blocking occurrence is a well-known limitation of many climate models. This article presents an analysis of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in an atmospheric model with increased horizontal resolution. European blocking frequency increases with model resolution, and this results from an improvement in the atmospheric patterns of variability as well as a simple improvement in the mean state. There is some evidence that the transient eddy momentum forcing of European blocks is increased at high resolution, which could account for this. However, it is also shown that the increase in resolution of the orography is needed to realise the improvement in blocking, consistent with the increase in height of the Rocky Mountains acting to increase the tilt of the Atlantic jet stream and giving higher mean geopotential heights over northern Europe. Blocking frequencies in the Pacific sector are also increased with atmospheric resolution, but in this case the improvement in orography actually leads to a decrease in blocking Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown copyright, Met Office.
DA - 2013///
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1002/asl2.412
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 14
IS - 1
SP - 34
EP - 40
LA - en
SN - 1530-261X
ST - Atmospheric blocking in a high resolution climate model
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl2.412/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/18/14:30:30
KW - high resolution
KW - atmospheric blocking
KW - mean state
KW - orography
KW - transient eddies
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Black carbon or brown carbon? The nature of light-absorbing carbonaceous aerosols
AU - Andreae, M. O.
AU - Gelencsér, A.
T2 - Atmos. Chem. Phys.
DA - 2006/07/28/
PY - 2006
DO - 10.5194/acp-6-3131-2006
DP - Copernicus Online Journals
VL - 6
IS - 10
SP - 3131
EP - 3148
J2 - Atmos. Chem. Phys.
SN - 1680-7324
ST - Black carbon or brown carbon?
UR - http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/6/3131/2006/
Y2 - 2014/02/18/14:28:23
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - An assessment of differences in lower stratospheric temperature records from (A)MSU, radiosondes, and GPS radio occultation
AU - Ladstädter, F.
AU - Steiner, A. K.
AU - Foelsche, U.
AU - Haimberger, L.
AU - Tavolato, C.
AU - Kirchengast, G.
T2 - Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
DA - 2011/09/21/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.5194/amt-4-1965-2011
DP - CrossRef
VL - 4
IS - 9
SP - 1965
EP - 1977
SN - 1867-8548
UR - http://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/4/1965/2011/amt-4-1965-2011.html
Y2 - 2013/12/19/09:55:58
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
AU - Dee, D. P.
AU - Uppala, S. M.
AU - Simmons, A. J.
AU - Berrisford, P.
AU - Poli, P.
AU - Kobayashi, S.
AU - Andrae, U.
AU - Balmaseda, M. A.
AU - Balsamo, G.
AU - Bauer, P.
AU - Bechtold, P.
AU - Beljaars, A. C. M.
AU - van de Berg, L.
AU - Bidlot, J.
AU - Bormann, N.
AU - Delsol, C.
AU - Dragani, R.
AU - Fuentes, M.
AU - Geer, A. J.
AU - Haimberger, L.
AU - Healy, S. B.
AU - Hersbach, H.
AU - Hólm, E. V.
AU - Isaksen, L.
AU - Kållberg, P.
AU - Köhler, M.
AU - Matricardi, M.
AU - McNally, A. P.
AU - Monge-Sanz, B. M.
AU - Morcrette, J.-J.
AU - Park, B.-K.
AU - Peubey, C.
AU - de Rosnay, P.
AU - Tavolato, C.
AU - Thépaut, J.-N.
AU - Vitart, F.
T2 - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
AB - ERA-Interim is the latest global atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The ERA-Interim project was conducted in part to prepare for a new atmospheric reanalysis to replace ERA-40, which will extend back to the early part of the twentieth century. This article describes the forecast model, data assimilation method, and input datasets used to produce ERA-Interim, and discusses the performance of the system. Special emphasis is placed on various difficulties encountered in the production of ERA-40, including the representation of the hydrological cycle, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, and the consistency in time of the reanalysed fields. We provide evidence for substantial improvements in each of these aspects. We also identify areas where further work is needed and describe opportunities and objectives for future reanalysis projects at ECMWF. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1002/qj.828
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 137
IS - 656
SP - 553
EP - 597
LA - en
SN - 1477-870X
ST - The ERA-Interim reanalysis
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.828/abstract
Y2 - 2013/12/20/09:02:05
KW - 4D-Var
KW - ERA-40
KW - forecast model
KW - hydrological cycle
KW - observations
KW - stratospheric circulation
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Slowing of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 25°N
AU - Bryden, Harry L.
AU - Longworth, Hannah R.
AU - Cunningham, Stuart A.
T2 - Nature
AB - The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation carries warm upper waters into far-northern latitudes and returns cold deep waters southward across the Equator1. Its heat transport makes a substantial contribution to the moderate climate of maritime and continental Europe, and any slowdown in the overturning circulation would have profound implications for climate change. A transatlantic section along latitude 25° N has been used as a baseline for estimating the overturning circulation and associated heat transport2, 3, 4. Here we analyse a new 25° N transatlantic section and compare it with four previous sections taken over the past five decades. The comparison suggests that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation has slowed by about 30 per cent between 1957 and 2004. Whereas the northward transport in the Gulf Stream across 25° N has remained nearly constant, the slowing is evident both in a 50 per cent larger southward-moving mid-ocean recirculation of thermocline waters, and also in a 50 per cent decrease in the southward transport of lower North Atlantic Deep Water between 3,000 and 5,000 m in depth. In 2004, more of the northward Gulf Stream flow was recirculating back southward in the thermocline within the subtropical gyre, and less was returning southward at depth.
DA - 2005/12/01/
PY - 2005
DO - 10.1038/nature04385
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 438
IS - 7068
SP - 655
EP - 657
J2 - Nature
LA - en
SN - 0028-0836
UR - http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v438/n7068/abs/nature04385.html
Y2 - 2014/02/18/14:31:21
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Contribution on Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report ot the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
A3 - Houghton, J.T.
A3 - Ding, Y
A3 - Griggs, D.J.
A3 - Noguer, M
A3 - Van der Linden, P.J.
A3 - Dai, X.
A3 - Maskell, K.
A3 - Johnson, C.A.
CY - Cambridge
DA - 2001///
PY - 2001
DP - Open WorldCat
LA - English
PB - Cambridge University Press
SN - 0-521-80767-0
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The representative concentration pathways: an overview
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.
AU - Edmonds, Jae
AU - Kainuma, Mikiko
AU - Riahi, Keywan
AU - Thomson, Allison
AU - Hibbard, Kathy
AU - Hurtt, George C.
AU - Kram, Tom
AU - Krey, Volker
AU - Lamarque, Jean-Francois
AU - Masui, Toshihiko
AU - Meinshausen, Malte
AU - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa
AU - Smith, Steven J.
AU - Rose, Steven K.
T2 - Climatic Change
AB - This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m2. The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5 × 0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.
DA - 2011/11/01/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
DP - link.springer.com
VL - 109
IS - 1-2
SP - 5
EP - 31
J2 - Climatic Change
LA - en
SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480
ST - The representative concentration pathways
UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:32:49
KW - Meteorology/Climatology
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Geoengineering: The good, the MAD, and the sensible
AU - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim
T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DA - 2011/12/20/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1073/pnas.1115966108
DP - www.pnas.org
VL - 108
IS - 51
SP - 20277
EP - 20278
LA - en
SN - 0027-8424, 1091-6490
ST - Geoengineering
UR - http://www.pnas.org/content/108/51/20277
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:22:31
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics
AU - Sarmiento, Jorge Louis
AU - Gruber, Nicolas
AB - "Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics provides a broad theoretical framework upon which graduate students and upper-level undergraduates can formulate an understanding of the processes that control the mean concentration and distribution of biologically utilized elements and compounds in the ocean. Though it is written as a textbook, it will also be of interest to more advanced scientists as a wide-ranging synthesis of our present understanding of ocean biogeochemical processes."--BOOK JACKET.
CY - Princeton
DA - 2006///
PY - 2006
DP - Open WorldCat
SP - 528
LA - English
PB - Princeton University Press
SN - 978-0-691-01707-5 0-691-01707-7
UR - http://press.princeton.edu/titles/8223.html
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Identification of anthropogenic climate change using a second-generation reanalysis
AU - Santer, Benjamin D.
AU - Wigley, Tom M. L.
AU - Simmons, Adrian J.
AU - Kållberg, Per W.
AU - Kelly, Graeme A.
AU - Uppala, Sakari M.
AU - Ammann, Caspar
AU - Boyle, James S.
AU - Brüggemann, Wolfgang
AU - Doutriaux, Charles
AU - Fiorino, Mike
AU - Mears, Carl
AU - Meehl, Gerald A.
AU - Sausen, Robert
AU - Taylor, Karl E.
AU - Washington, Warren M.
AU - Wehner, Michael F.
AU - Wentz, Frank J.
T2 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
AB - Changes in the height of the tropopause provide a sensitive indicator of human effects on climate. A previous attempt to identify human effects on tropopause height relied on information from ‘first-generation’ reanalyses of past weather observations. Climate data from these initial model-based reanalyses have well-documented deficiencies, raising concerns regarding the robustness of earlier detection work that employed these data. Here we address these concerns using information from the new second-generation ERA-40 reanalysis. Over 1979 to 2001, tropopause height increases by nearly 200 m in ERA-40, partly due to tropospheric warming. The spatial pattern of height increase is consistent with climate model predictions of the expected response to anthropogenic influences alone, significantly strengthening earlier detection results. Atmospheric temperature changes in two different satellite data sets are more highly correlated with changes in ERA-40 than with those in a first-generation reanalysis, illustrating the improved quality of temperature information in ERA-40. Our results provide support for claims that human activities have warmed the troposphere and cooled the lower stratosphere over the last several decades of the 20th century, and that both of these changes in atmospheric temperature have contributed to an overall increase in tropopause height.
DA - 2004///
PY - 2004
DO - 10.1029/2004JD005075
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 109
IS - D21
LA - en
SN - 2156-2202
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004JD005075/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:21:35
KW - Climate change
KW - detection
KW - reanalysis
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification
AU - Rubel, Franz
AU - Kottek, Markus
T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift
AB - In a previous paper we presented an update of the highly referenced climate classification map, that of Wladimir Köppen, which was published for the first time in 1900 and updated in its latest version by Rudolf Geiger in 1961. This updated world map of Köppen-Geiger climate classification was based on temperature and precipitation observations for the period 1951-2000. Here, we present a series of digital world maps for the extended period 1901-2100 to depict global trends in observed climate and projected climate change scenarios. World maps for the observational period 1901-2002 are based on recent data sets from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia and the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at the German Weather Service. World maps for the period 2003-2100 are based on ensemble projections of global climate models provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The main results comprise an estimation of the shifts of climate zones within the 21st century by considering different IPCC scenarios. The largest shifts between the main classes of equatorial climate (A), arid climate (B), warm temperate climate (C), snow climate (D) and polar climate (E) on global land areas are estimated as 2.6-3.4 % (E to D), 2.2-4.7 % (D to C), 1.3-2.0 (C to B) and 2.1-3.2 % (C to A).
DA - 2010/04/01/
PY - 2010
DO - 10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0430
VL - 19
IS - 2
SP - 135
EP - 141
SN - ISSN 0941-2948
UR - http://www.schweizerbart.de/papers/metz/list/19#issue2
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - In defense of Milankovitch
AU - Roe, Gerard
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - The Milankovitch hypothesis is widely held to be one of the cornerstones of climate science. Surprisingly, the hypothesis remains not clearly defined despite an extensive body of research on the link between global ice volume and insolation changes arising from variations in the Earth's orbit. In this paper, a specific hypothesis is formulated. Basic physical arguments are used to show that, rather than focusing on the absolute global ice volume, it is much more informative to consider the time rate of change of global ice volume. This simple and dynamically-logical change in perspective is used to show that the available records support a direct, zero-lag, antiphased relationship between the rate of change of global ice volume and summertime insolation in the northern high latitudes. Furthermore, variations in atmospheric CO2 appear to lag the rate of change of global ice volume. This implies only a secondary role for CO2 – variations in which produce a weaker radiative forcing than the orbitally-induced changes in summertime insolation – in driving changes in global ice volume.
DA - 2006///
PY - 2006
DO - 10.1029/2006GL027817
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 33
IS - 24
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027817/abstract
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:10:54
KW - ice volume
KW - ice age
KW - Milankovitch
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Special report on emission scenarios. IPCC
A3 - Nakicenovic, N.
A3 - Swart, R.
DA - 2000///
PY - 2000
PB - Cambridge University Press, UK
UR - http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Einführung in die Meteorologie
AU - Möller, Fritz
CY - Mannheim
DA - 1973///
PY - 1973
LA - Deutsch
PB - B.I. Wissenschaftsverlag
SN - 978-3-86025-698-5
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
AU - Knutti, Reto
AU - Sedláček, Jan
T2 - Nature Climate Change
AB - Estimates of impacts from anthropogenic climate change rely on projections from climate models. Uncertainties in those have often been a limiting factor, in particular on local scales. A new generation of more complex models running scenarios for the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) is widely, and perhaps naively, expected to provide more detailed and more certain projections. Here we show that projected global temperature change from the new models is remarkably similar to that from those used in IPCC AR4 after accounting for the different underlying scenarios. The spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation change are also very consistent. Interestingly, the local model spread has not changed much despite substantial model development and a massive increase in computational capacity. Part of this model spread is irreducible owing to internal variability in the climate system, yet there is also uncertainty from model differences that can potentially be eliminated. We argue that defining progress in climate modelling in terms of narrowing uncertainties is too limited. Models improve, representing more processes in greater detail. This implies greater confidence in their projections, but convergence may remain slow. The uncertainties should not stop decisions being made.
DA - 2013///
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1038/nclimate1716
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 3
IS - 4
SP - 369
EP - 373
LA - en
SN - 1758-678X
UR - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/full/nclimate1716.html
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
KW - Earth sciences
KW - Modelling and statistics
KW - Projection and prediction
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Das Klima im Eiszeitalter
AU - Klostermann, Josef
CY - Stuttgart
DA - 2009//07/
PY - 2009
ET - 2. Auflage
PB - Schweizerbart'sche Verlagsbuchhandlung
SN - ISBN 978-3-510-65248-8
UR - http://www.schweizerbart.de//publications/detail/isbn/9783510652488/Das_Klima_im_Eiszeitalter
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Improved estimates and understanding of global albedo and atmospheric solar absorption
AU - Kim, Dohyeong
AU - Ramanathan, V.
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - This study integrates available surface-based and satellite observations of solar radiation at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA) with a comprehensive set of satellite observations of atmospheric and surface optical properties and a Monte Carlo Aerosol-Cloud-Radiation (MACR) model to estimate the three fundamental components of the planetary solar radiation budget: Albedo at the TOA; atmospheric solar absorption; and surface solar absorption. The MACR incorporates most if not all of our current understanding of the theory of solar radiation physics including modern spectroscopic water vapor data, minor trace gases, absorbing aerosols including its effects inside cloud drops, 3-D cloud scattering effects. The model is subject to a severe test by comparing the simulated solar radiation budget with data from 34 globally distributed state-of-the art BSRN (Baseline Surface Radiation Network) land stations which began data collection in the mid 1990s. The TOA over these sites were obtained from the CERES (Cloud and Earth's Radiant Energy System) satellites. The simulated radiation budget was within 2 Wm−2for all three components over the BSRN sites. On the other hand, over these same sites, the IPCC-2007 simulation of atmospheric absorption is smaller by 7–8 Wm−2. MACR was then used with a comprehensive set of model input from satellites to simulate global solar radiation budget. The simulated planetary albedo of 29.0% confirms the value (28.6%) observed by CERES. We estimate the atmospheric absorption to be 82 ± 8 Wm−2 to be compared with the 67 Wm−2 by IPCC models as of 2001 and updated to 76 Wm−2by IPCC-2007. The primary reasons for the 6 Wm−2 larger solar absorption in our estimates are: updated water vapor spectroscopic database (∼1 Wm−2), inclusion of minor gases (∼0.5 Wm−2), black and brown carbon aerosols (∼4 Wm−2), the inclusion of black carbon in clouds (∼1 Wm−2) and 3-D effect of clouds (∼1 Wm−2). The fundamental deduction from our study is the remarkable consistency between satellite measurements of the radiation budget and the parameters (aerosols, clouds and surface reflectivity) which determine the radiation budget. Because of this consistency we can account for and explain the global solar radiation budget of the planet within few Wm−2.
DA - 2012///
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1029/2012GL053757
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 39
IS - 24
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL053757/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:07:33
KW - atmospheric solar absorption
KW - BSRN
KW - GEBA
KW - global albedo
KW - MACR
KW - solar radiation budget
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008
AU - Flanner, M. G.
AU - Shell, K. M.
AU - Barlage, M.
AU - Perovich, D. K.
AU - Tschudi, M. A.
T2 - Nature Geoscience
AB - The extent of snow cover and sea ice in the Northern Hemispherehas declined since 1979, coincident with hemispheric warming and indicative of a positive feedback of surface reflectivity on climate. This albedo feedback of snow on land has been quantified from observations at seasonal timescales, and century-scale feedback has been assessed using climate models. However, the total impact of the cryosphere on radiative forcing and albedo feedback has yet to be determined from measurements. Here we assess the influence of the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere on Earth’s radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere—termed cryosphere radiative forcing—by synthesizing a variety of remote sensing and field measurements. We estimate mean Northern Hemisphere forcing at −4.6 to −2.2 W m−2, with a peak in May of −9.0±2.7 W m−2. We find that cyrospheric cooling declined by 0.45 W m−2 from 1979 to 2008, with nearly equal contributions from changes in land snow cover and sea ice. On the basis of these observations, we conclude that the albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere falls between 0.3 and 1.1 W m−2 K−1, substantially larger than comparable estimates obtained from 18 climate models.
DA - 2011/03//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1038/ngeo1062
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 4
IS - 3
SP - 151
EP - 155
J2 - Nature Geoscience
LA - en
SN - 1752-0894
UR - http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n3/full/ngeo1062.html
Y2 - 2013/12/20/09:04:39
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions
AU - Douglass, David H.
AU - Christy, John R.
AU - Pearson, Benjamin D.
AU - Singer, S. Fred
T2 - International Journal of Climatology
DA - 2007///
PY - 2007
DO - 10.1002/joc.1651
DP - CrossRef
VL - 28
IS - 13
SP - 1693
EP - 1701
SN - 08998418, 10970088
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/joc.1651
Y2 - 2013/08/22/13:34:02
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4
AU - Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso
AU - Mogensen, Kristian
AU - Weaver, Anthony T.
T2 - Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
AB - A new operational ocean reanalysis system (ORAS4) has been implemented at ECMWF. It spans the period 1958 to the present. This article describes its main components and evaluates its quality. The adequacy of ORAS4 for the initialization of seasonal forecasts is discussed, along with the robustness of some prominent climate signals.ORAS4 has been evaluated using different metrics, including comparison with observed ocean currents, RAPID-derived transports, sea-level gauges, and GRACE-derived bottom pressure. Compared to a control ocean model simulation, ORAS4 improves the fit to observations, the interannual variability, and seasonal forecast skill. Some problems have been identified, such as the underestimation of meridional overturning at 26°N, the magnitude of which is shown to be sensitive to the treatment of the coastal observations.ORAS4 shows a clear and robust shallowing trend of the Pacific Equatorial thermocline. It also shows a clear and robust nonlinear trend in the 0–700 m ocean heat content, consistent with other observational estimates. Some aspects of these climate signals are sensitive to the choice of sea-surface temperature product and the specification of the observation-error variances. The global sea-level trend is consistent with the altimeter estimate, but the partition into volume and mass variations is more debatable, as inferred by discrepancies in the trend between ORAS4- and GRACE-derived bottom pressure.
DA - 2013a
PY - 2013a
DO - 10.1002/qj.2063
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 139
IS - 674
SP - 1132
EP - 1161
LA - en
SN - 1477-870X
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2063/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/18/14:29:37
KW - climate variability
KW - initialization
KW - ocean reanalysis
KW - quality metric
KW - validation
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content
AU - Balmaseda, Magdalena A.
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
AU - Källén, Erland
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - The elusive nature of the post-2004 upper ocean warming has exposed uncertainties in the ocean's role in the Earth's energy budget and transient climate sensitivity. Here we present the time evolution of the global ocean heat content for 1958 through 2009 from a new observation-based reanalysis of the ocean. Volcanic eruptions and El Niño events are identified as sharp cooling events punctuating a long-term ocean warming trend, while heating continues during the recent upper-ocean-warming hiatus, but the heat is absorbed in the deeper ocean. In the last decade, about 30% of the warming has occurred below 700 m, contributing significantly to an acceleration of the warming trend. The warming below 700 m remains even when the Argo observing system is withdrawn although the trends are reduced. Sensitivity experiments illustrate that surface wind variability is largely responsible for the changing ocean heat vertical distribution.
DA - 2013b
PY - 2013b
DO - 10.1002/grl.50382
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 40
IS - 9
SP - 1754
EP - 1759
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50382/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/18/14:30:08
KW - global warming
KW - ocean heat content
KW - climate trends
KW - climate variability
KW - ENSO
KW - ocean reanalyses
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present
AU - Zachos, James
AU - Pagani, Mark
AU - Sloan, Lisa
AU - Thomas, Ellen
AU - Billups, Katharina
T2 - Science
AB - Since 65 million years ago (Ma), Earth's climate has undergone a significant and complex evolution, the finer details of which are now coming to light through investigations of deep-sea sediment cores. This evolution includes gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time scales of 105to 107 years, rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes with 104- to 106-year cyclicity, and rare rapid aberrant shifts and extreme climate transients with durations of 103 to 105 years. Here, recent progress in defining the evolution of global climate over the Cenozoic Era is reviewed. We focus primarily on the periodic and anomalous components of variability over the early portion of this era, as constrained by the latest generation of deep-sea isotope records. We also consider how this improved perspective has led to the recognition of previously unforeseen mechanisms for altering climate.
DA - 2001/04/27/
PY - 2001
DO - 10.1126/science.1059412
DP - www.sciencemag.org
VL - 292
IS - 5517
SP - 686
EP - 693
J2 - Science
LA - en
SN - 0036-8075, 1095-9203
UR - http://www.sciencemag.org/content/292/5517/686
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:35:18
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - A predictable AMO-like pattern in the GFDL fully coupled ensemble initialization and decadal forecasting system
AU - Yang, Xiaosong
AU - Rosati, Anthony
AU - Zhang, Shaoqing
AU - Delworth, Thomas L.
AU - Gudgel, Rich G.
AU - Zhang, Rong
AU - Vecchi, Gabriel
AU - Anderson, Whit
AU - Chang, You-Soon
AU - DelSole, Timothy
AU - Dixon, Keith
AU - Msadek, Rym
AU - Stern, William F.
AU - Wittenberg, Andrew
AU - Zeng, Fanrong
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2013/01//
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 26
IS - 2
SP - 650
EP - 661
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00231.1
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:34:50
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Tide gauge datum continuity at Brest since 1711: France's longest sea-level record
AU - Wöppelmann, Guy
AU - Pouvreau, Nicolas
AU - Coulomb, Alain
AU - Simon, Bernard
AU - Woodworth, Philip L.
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
AB - The issue of a possible tide gauge datum discontinuity at Brest, caused by the bombing of the city in August 1944, is discussed. This issue is very important, as many scientists have used this long record to derive a long-term sea level trend estimate for use within global sea level rise studies. A detailed analysis of historical leveling information, and comparison of sea level data between adjacent stations, proved to be worthwhile, even beyond this initial scope of the study: it led to an accurate datum connection between recently rediscovered 18th century sea level data (back to 1711) and those of the present day. The study provides additional evidence that the onset of recent rapid sea level rise most likely took place in the late 19th century, in agreement with the nearby Liverpool sea-level record and with independent results from sediment cores collected in salt marshes located in both hemispheres.
DA - 2008///
PY - 2008
DO - 10.1029/2008GL035783
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 35
IS - 22
LA - en
SN - 1944-8007
ST - Tide gauge datum continuity at Brest since 1711
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2008GL035783/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:34:32
KW - Brest
KW - sea level variations
KW - tide guages
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Early ship observational data and ICOADS
AU - Woodruff, Scott D.
AU - Diaz, Henry F.
AU - Worley, Steven J.
AU - Reynolds, Richard W.
AU - Lubker, Sandra J.
T2 - Climatic Change
AB - Many surface marine meteorological observations (∼125 million) from ships' logbooks have been assembled in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) back to the late 18th century. We describe the makeup of the available data before 1950, and a recent update for that period incorporating a variety of US and international sources – focusing on the background, digitization, and processing of the US Maury Collection, which provides the earliest data (mainly 1830–1860) currently blended into ICOADS. We also describe planned data and metadata additions to early ICOADS. Among these, the new Climatological Database for the World's Oceans (CLIWOC) will extend and enhance coverage for 1750–1854. Prospects for data improvements and homogeneity enhancements to further benefit climate research are also discussed.
DA - 2005/11/01/
PY - 2005
DO - 10.1007/s10584-005-3456-3
DP - link.springer.com
VL - 73
IS - 1-2
SP - 169
EP - 194
J2 - Climatic Change
LA - en
SN - 0165-0009, 1573-1480
UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-005-3456-3
Y2 - 2013/12/19/09:58:29
KW - Meteorology/Climatology
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Enlightening global dimming and brightening
AU - Wild, Martin
T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DA - 2012/01//
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 93
IS - 1
SP - 27
EP - 37
SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/18:34:33
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Impacts of model resolutions and initial conditions on predictions of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system
AU - Wen, Min
AU - Yang, Song
AU - Vintzileos, Augustin
AU - Higgins, Wayne
AU - Zhang, Renhe
T2 - Weather and Forecasting
DA - 2012/06//
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1175/WAF-D-11-00128.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 27
IS - 3
SP - 629
EP - 646
SN - 0882-8156, 1520-0434
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00128.1
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:33:42
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Modeling the Sun’s magnetic field and irradiance since 1713
AU - Wang, Y.M.
AU - Lean, J. L.
AU - Sheeley, N. R.
T2 - The Astrophysical Journal
DA - 2005/05/20/
PY - 2005
DO - 10.1086/429689
DP - CrossRef
VL - 625
IS - 1
SP - 522
EP - 538
SN - 0004-637X, 1538-4357
UR - http://stacks.iop.org/0004-637X/625/i=1/a=522
Y2 - 2013/08/23/18:30:12
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Atmospheric moisture transports from ocean to land and global energy flows in reanalyses
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
AU - Fasullo, John T.
AU - Mackaro, Jessica
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2011/09//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 24
IS - 18
SP - 4907
EP - 4924
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:53:19
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Earth's global energy budget
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
AU - Fasullo, John T.
AU - Kiehl, Jeffrey
T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DA - 2009/03//
PY - 2009
DO - 10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 90
IS - 3
SP - 311
EP - 323
SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:50:32
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design
AU - Taylor, Karl E.
AU - Stouffer, Ronald J.
AU - Meehl, Gerald A.
T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DA - 2012/04//
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 93
IS - 4
SP - 485
EP - 498
SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:43:40
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - An assessment of climate feedbacks in coupled ocean–atmosphere models
AU - Soden, Brian J.
AU - Held, Isaac M.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2006/07//
PY - 2006
DO - 10.1175/JCLI3799.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 19
IS - 14
SP - 3354
EP - 3360
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3799.1
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:24:45
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Tropospheric water vapor, convection, and climate
AU - Sherwood, S. C.
AU - Roca, R.
AU - Weckwerth, T. M.
AU - Andronova, N. G.
T2 - Reviews of Geophysics
AB - Recent progress is reviewed in the understanding of convective interaction with water vapor and changes associated with water vapor in warmer climates. Progress includes new observing techniques (including isotopic methods) that are helping to illuminate moisture-convection interaction, better observed humidity trends, new modeling approaches, and clearer expectations as to the hydrological consequences of increased specific humidity in a warmer climate. A theory appears to be in place to predict humidity in the free troposphere if winds are known at large scales, providing a crucial link between small-scale behavior and large-scale mass and energy constraints. This, along with observations, supports the anticipated water vapor feedback on climate, though key uncertainties remain connected to atmospheric dynamics and the hydrological consequences of a moister atmosphere. More work is called for to understand how circulations on all scales are governed and what role water vapor plays. Suggestions are given for future research.
DA - 2010///
PY - 2010
DO - 10.1029/2009RG000301
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 48
IS - 2
LA - en
SN - 1944-9208
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009RG000301/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:23:31
KW - Climate change
KW - water vapor
KW - climate feedbacks
KW - convection
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Quantifying uncertainty in climatological fields from GPS radio occultation: An empirical-analytical error model
AU - Scherllin-Pirscher, B.
AU - Kirchengast, G.
AU - Steiner, A. K.
AU - Kuo, Y.-H.
AU - Foelsche, U.
T2 - Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
DA - 2011/09/29/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.5194/amt-4-2019-2011
DP - CrossRef
VL - 4
IS - 9
SP - 2019
EP - 2034
SN - 1867-8548
ST - Quantifying uncertainty in climatological fields from GPS radio occultation
UR - http://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/4/2019/2011/
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:20:13
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere
AU - Santer, B. D.
AU - Wigley, T. M. L.
AU - Mears, C.
AU - Wentz, F. J.
AU - Klein, S. A.
AU - Seidel, D. J.
AU - Taylor, K. E.
AU - Thorne, P. W.
AU - Wehner, M. F.
AU - Gleckler, P. J.
AU - Boyle, J. S.
AU - Collins, W. D.
AU - Dixon, K. W.
AU - Doutriaux, C.
AU - Free, M.
AU - Fu, Q.
AU - Hansen, J. E.
AU - Jones, G. S.
AU - Ruedy, R.
AU - Karl, T. R.
AU - Lanzante, J. R.
AU - Meehl, G. A.
AU - Ramaswamy, V.
AU - Russell, G.
AU - Schmidt, G. A.
T2 - Science
AB - The month-to-month variability of tropical temperatures is larger in the troposphere than at Earth's surface. This amplification behavior is similar in a range of observations and climate model simulations and is consistent with basic theory. On multidecadal time scales, tropospheric amplification of surface warming is a robust feature of model simulations, but it occurs in only one observational data set. Other observations show weak, or even negative, amplification. These results suggest either that different physical mechanisms control amplification processes on monthly and decadal time scales, and models fail to capture such behavior; or (more plausibly) that residual errors in several observational data sets used here affect their representation of long-term trends.
DA - 2005/02/09/
PY - 2005
DO - 10.1126/science.1114867
DP - www.sciencemag.org
VL - 309
IS - 5740
SP - 1551
EP - 1556
J2 - Science
LA - en
SN - 0036-8075, 1095-9203
UR - http://www.sciencemag.org/content/309/5740/1551
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:20:57
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - MERRA: NASA’s modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications
AU - Rienecker, Michele M.
AU - Suarez, Max J.
AU - Gelaro, Ronald
AU - Todling, Ricardo
AU - Bacmeister, Julio
AU - Liu, Emily
AU - Bosilovich, Michael G.
AU - Schubert, Siegfried D.
AU - Takacs, Lawrence
AU - Kim, Gi-Kong
AU - Bloom, Stephen
AU - Chen, Junye
AU - Collins, Douglas
AU - Conaty, Austin
AU - da Silva, Arlindo
AU - Gu, Wei
AU - Joiner, Joanna
AU - Koster, Randal D.
AU - Lucchesi, Robert
AU - Molod, Andrea
AU - Owens, Tommy
AU - Pawson, Steven
AU - Pegion, Philip
AU - Redder, Christopher R.
AU - Reichle, Rolf
AU - Robertson, Franklin R.
AU - Ruddick, Albert G.
AU - Sienkiewicz, Meta
AU - Woollen, Jack
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2011/07//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 24
IS - 14
SP - 3624
EP - 3648
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
ST - MERRA
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00015.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:08:37
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Importance of background climate in determining impact of land-cover change on regional climate
AU - Pitman, A. J.
AU - Avila, F. B.
AU - Abramowitz, G.
AU - Wang, Y. P.
AU - Phipps, S. J.
AU - de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.
T2 - Nature Climate Change
AB - Humans have modified the Earth’s climate through emissions of greenhouse gases and through land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere warm the mid-latitudes more than the tropics, in part owing to a reduced snow–albedo feedback as snow cover decreases. Higher concentration of carbon dioxide also increases precipitation in many regions, as a result of an intensification of the hydrological cycle. The biophysical effects of LULCC since pre-industrial times have probably cooled temperate and boreal regions and warmed some tropical regions. Here we use a climate model to show that how snow and rainfall change under increased greenhouse gases dominates how LULCC affects regional temperature. Increased greenhouse-gas-driven changes in snow and rainfall affect the snow–albedo feedback and the supply of water, which in turn limits evaporation. These changes largely control the net impact of LULCC on regional climate. Our results show that capturing whether future biophysical changes due to LULCC warm or cool a specific region therefore requires an accurate simulation of changes in snow cover and rainfall geographically coincident with regions of LULCC. This is a challenge to current climate models, but also provides potential for further improving detection and attribution methods.
DA - 2011/12//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1038/nclimate1294
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 1
IS - 9
SP - 472
EP - 475
LA - en
SN - 1758-678X
UR - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n9/full/nclimate1294.html
Y2 - 2014/02/19/12:18:08
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - El Niño, La Niña, and the southern oscillation
AU - Philander, S. George
T2 - International Geophysics
AB - El Nino and the Southern Oscillation is by far the most striking phenomenon caused by the interplay of ocean and atmosphere. It can be explained neither in strictly oceanographic nor strictly meteorological terms. This volume provides a brief history of the subject, summarizes the oceanographic and meteorological observations and theories, and discusses the recent advances in computer modeling studies of the phenomenon.
CY - San Diego
DA - 1990///
PY - 1990
DP - Open WorldCat
LA - English
M1 - 46
PB - Academic Press
SN - 978-0-08-057098-3 0-08-057098-4
UR - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/bookseries/00746142/46
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis
AU - Peters, Glen P.
AU - Marland, Gregg
AU - Le Quéré, Corinne
AU - Boden, Thomas
AU - Canadell, Josep G.
AU - Raupach, Michael R.
T2 - Nature Climate Change
AB - To the Editor
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production grew 5.9% in 2010, surpassed 9 Pg of carbon (Pg C) for the first time, and more than offset the 1.4% decrease in 2009. The impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on emissions has been short-lived…
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1038/nclimate1332
DP - www.nature.com
VL - 2
IS - 1
SP - 2
EP - 4
LA - en
SN - 1758-678X
UR - http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n1/full/nclimate1332.html
Y2 - 2013/08/23/12:00:13
KW - Economics
KW - Atmospheric science
KW - Modelling and statistics
KW - Policy
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The response of tropical atmospheric energy budgets to ENSO
AU - Mayer, Michael
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
AU - Haimberger, Leopold
AU - Fasullo, John T.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2013/07//
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00681.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 26
IS - 13
SP - 4710
EP - 4724
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00681.1
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:36:47
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Poleward atmospheric energy transports and their variability as evaluated from ECMWF reanalysis data
AU - Mayer, Michael
AU - Haimberger, Leopold
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2012/01//
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00202.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 25
IS - 2
SP - 734
EP - 752
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00202.1
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:36:25
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Possible implications of climate engineering for peace and security
AU - Link, P. Michael
AU - Brzoska, Michael
AU - Maas, Achim
AU - Neuneck, Götz
AU - Scheffran, Jürgen
T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DA - 2013/02//
PY - 2013
DO - 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00022.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 94
IS - 2
SP - ES13
EP - ES16
SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00022.1
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:35:33
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - A review of predictability studies of atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales
AU - Latif, M.
AU - Collins, M.
AU - Pohlmann, H.
AU - Keenlyside, N.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2006/12//
PY - 2006
DO - 10.1175/JCLI3945.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 19
IS - 23
SP - 5971
EP - 5987
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3945.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Atmospheric climate change detection by radio occultation data using a fingerprinting method
AU - Lackner, Bettina C.
AU - Steiner, Andrea K.
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C.
AU - Kirchengast, Gottfried
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2011/10//
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1175/2011JCLI3966.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 24
IS - 20
SP - 5275
EP - 5291
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JCLI3966.1
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - World map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated
AU - Kottek, Markus
AU - Grieser, Jürgen
AU - Beck, Christoph
AU - Rudolf, Bruno
AU - Rubel, Franz
T2 - Meteorologische Zeitschrift
DA - 2006/06/01/
PY - 2006
DO - 10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0130
DP - CrossRef
VL - 15
IS - 3
SP - 259
EP - 263
SN - 09412948
UR - http://openurl.ingenta.com/content/xref?genre=article&issn=0941-2948&volume=15&issue=3&spage=259
Y2 - 2013/08/23/
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance
AU - Kopp, Greg
AU - Lean, Judith L.
T2 - Geophysical Research Letters
DA - 2011/01/16/
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1029/2010GL045777
DP - CrossRef
VL - 38
IS - 1
LA - en
SN - 00948276
ST - A new, lower value of total solar irradiance
UR - http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2010GL045777
Y2 - 2014/04/25/09:34:29
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: The HYDE database
AU - Klein Goldewijk, K.
T2 - Global Biogeochemical Cycles
AB - Testing against historical data is an important step for validating integrated models of global environmental change. Owing to long time lags in the climate system, these models should aim the simulation of the land use dynamics for long periods, i.e., spanning decades up to a century. Developing such models requires understanding of past and current trends and is therefore strongly data dependent. For this purpose, a history database of the global environment has been developed: HYDE. This paper describes and analyzes parts of HYDE version 2.0, presenting historical population and land use patterns for the past 300 years. Results suggest, among other things, a global increase of cropland area from 265 million ha in 1700 to 1471 million ha in 1990, while the area of pasture has increased more than six fold from 524 to 3451 million ha. In general, the increase of man-made agricultural land took place at the expense of natural grasslands and to a lesser extent of forests. There are differences between the several regions in the temporal pace of these land use conversions. The temperate/developed regions of Canada, United States, USSR, and Oceania appear to have had their strongest increase during the 19th century, while most of the tropical/developing regions witnessed the largest land use conversions at the end of the last century. Results of this analysis can be used to test integrated models of global change and are available at http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/hyde/.
DA - 2001///
PY - 2001
DO - 10.1029/1999GB001232
DP - Wiley Online Library
VL - 15
IS - 2
SP - 417
EP - 433
LA - en
SN - 1944-9224
ST - Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years
UR - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999GB001232/abstract
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:07:53
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Modern global climate change
AU - Karl, Thomas R.
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
T2 - Science
AB - Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.
DA - 2003/05/12/
PY - 2003
DO - 10.1126/science.1090228
DP - www.sciencemag.org
VL - 302
IS - 5651
SP - 1719
EP - 1723
J2 - Science
LA - en
SN - 0036-8075, 1095-9203
UR - http://www.sciencemag.org/content/302/5651/1719
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:02:02
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Understanding and measuring Earth’s energy budget: From Fourier, Humboldt, and Tyndall to CERES and beyond
AU - Kandel, Robert
T2 - Surveys in Geophysics
AB - This historical perspective on the determination of Earth’s energy fluxes, beginning with the classical description of climate, outlines the establishment of the basic physics of the Earth climate system in the nineteenth century. After recalling the early twentieth century ground-based attempts to determine the Earth’s energy budget, I review the growing contributions of observations from space to quantifying these exchanges. In particular, space observations have shown that variations of solar luminosity have been extremely small (of order 0.1%) over past decades and probably past centuries and that they play practically no role in present-day climate variations or variations that may be expected in coming decades. Overall geographical structure, diurnal and seasonal cycles, and some of the interannual and interdecadal variations of Earth’s energy exchanges with the Sun and space are now quite well determined, but much remains to be done regarding, on the one hand, fluxes at the surface and, on the other hand, variations of clouds. Improvements are essential if scientific assessment of anthropogenic climate change risk is to keep up with the changes themselves.
DA - 2012/07/01/
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1007/s10712-011-9162-y
DP - link.springer.com
VL - 33
IS - 3-4
SP - 337
EP - 350
LA - en
SN - 0169-3298, 1573-0956
ST - Understanding and Measuring Earth’s Energy Budget
UR - http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-011-9162-y
Y2 - 2014/02/19/08:01:39
KW - Geophysics/Geodesy
KW - Astronomy, Observations and Techniques
KW - Earth Sciences, general
KW - Earth’s energy flows
KW - Historical background
KW - Satellite observations
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers
AU - IPCC
A3 - Houghton, J.T.
A3 - Meira Filho, L.G.
A3 - Callander, B.A.
A3 - Harris, N.
A3 - Kattenberg, A.
A3 - Maskell, K.
CN - TD885.5.G73 S7 2000
CY - Cambridge
DA - 2013a
PY - 2013a
DP - Library of Congress ISBN
PB - Cambridge University Press
UR - http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UwN6aft8W3w
KW - Climatic changes
KW - Forecasting
KW - greenhouse gases
ER -
TY - BOOK
TI - Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis
AU - IPCC
A3 - Houghton, J.T.
A3 - Meira Filho, L.G.
A3 - Callander, B.A.
A3 - Harris, N.
A3 - Kattenberg, A.
A3 - Maskell, K.
CN - TD885.5.G73 S7 2000
CY - Cambridge
DA - 2013///
PY - 2013
DP - Library of Congress ISBN
PB - Cambridge University Press
UR - http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UwN6aft8W3w
KW - Climatic changes
KW - Forecasting
KW - greenhouse gases
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The MACC reanalysis: an 8 yr data set of atmospheric composition
AU - Inness, A.
AU - Baier, F.
AU - Benedetti, A.
AU - Bouarar, I.
AU - Chabrillat, S.
AU - Clark, H.
AU - Clerbaux, C.
AU - Coheur, P.
AU - Engelen, R. J.
AU - Errera, Q.
AU - Flemming, J.
AU - George, M.
AU - Granier, C.
AU - Hadji-Lazaro, J.
AU - Huijnen, V.
AU - Hurtmans, D.
AU - Jones, L.
AU - Kaiser, J. W.
AU - Kapsomenakis, J.
AU - Lefever, K.
AU - Leitão, J.
AU - Razinger, M.
AU - Richter, A.
AU - Schultz, M. G.
AU - Simmons, A. J.
AU - Suttie, M.
AU - Stein, O.
AU - Thépaut, J.-N.
AU - Thouret, V.
AU - Vrekoussis, M.
AU - Zerefos, C.
AU - the MACC team
T2 - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
DA - 2013/04/18/
PY - 2013
DO - 10.5194/acp-13-4073-2013
DP - Copernicus Online Journals
VL - 13
IS - 8
SP - 4073
EP - 4109
SN - 1680-7324
ST - The MACC reanalysis
UR - http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/4073/2013/
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:13:27
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to gobal warming
AU - Held, Isaac M.
AU - Soden, Brian J.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2006/11//
PY - 2006
DO - 10.1175/JCLI3990.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 19
IS - 21
SP - 5686
EP - 5699
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JCli...19.5686H
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:11:37
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method
AU - Hegerl, Gabriele C.
AU - von Storch, Hans
AU - Hasselmann, Klaus
AU - Santer, Benjamin D.
AU - Cubasch, Ulrich
AU - Jones, Philip D.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 1996/10//
PY - 1996
DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2281:DGGICC>2.0.CO;2
DP - CrossRef
VL - 9
IS - 10
SP - 2281
EP - 2306
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009%3C2281:DGGICC%3E2.0.CO;2
Y2 - 2013/08/23/08:31:22
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions
AU - Hawkins, Ed
AU - Sutton, Rowan
T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
DA - 2009/08//
PY - 2009
DO - 10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 90
IS - 8
SP - 1095
EP - 1107
SN - 0003-0007, 1520-0477
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:09:22
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Optimal fingerprints for the detection of time-dependent climate change
AU - Hasselmann, K.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 1993/10//
PY - 1993
DO - 10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1957:OFFTDO>2.0.CO;2
DP - CrossRef
VL - 6
IS - 10
SP - 1957
EP - 1971
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006%3C1957%3AOFFTDO%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:08:52
ER -
TY - GEN
TI - Numerical data and functional relationships in science and technology. New series Group V, Vol. 6
A2 - Hantel, Michael
DA - 2005///
PY - 2005
DP - Open WorldCat
LA - German
PB - Springer
ST - Numerical data and functional relationships in science and technology
UR - http://www.vetmeduni.ac.at/fileadmin/v/oeffentliches-veterinaerwesen/RUBEL_pdf/Observed_Global_Climate_11.pdf
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Global warming in the twenty-first century: An alternative scenario
AU - Hansen, James
AU - Sato, Makiko
AU - Ruedy, Reto
AU - Lacis, Andrew
AU - Oinas, Valdar
T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
AB - A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition-specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.
DA - 2000/08/29/
PY - 2000
DO - 10.1073/pnas.170278997
DP - www.pnas.org
VL - 97
IS - 18
SP - 9875
EP - 9880
LA - en
SN - 0027-8424, 1091-6490
ST - Global warming in the twenty-first century
UR - http://www.pnas.org/content/97/18/9875
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:04:53
KW - Climate change
KW - aerosols
KW - air pollution
KW - Greenhouse gases
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos
AU - Hansen, James
AU - Nazarenko, Larissa
T2 - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
AB - Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m2 in the Northern Hemisphere. The “efficacy” of this forcing is ∼2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO2 in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.
DA - 2004/01/13/
PY - 2004
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2237157100
DP - www.pnas.org
VL - 101
IS - 2
SP - 423
EP - 428
LA - en
SN - 0027-8424, 1091-6490
UR - http://www.pnas.org/content/101/2/423
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:05:20
KW - Climate change
KW - aerosols
KW - air pollution
KW - sea level
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Homogenization of the global radiosonde temperature dataset through combined comparison with reanalysis background series and neighboring stations
AU - Haimberger, Leopold
AU - Tavolato, C
AU - Sperka, S
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2012///
PY - 2012
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00668.1
DP - Open WorldCat
VL - 25
IS - 23
SP - 8108
EP - 8131
LA - English
SN - 0894-8755
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The impact of solar variability on climate
AU - Haigh, Joanna D.
T2 - Science
AB - A general circulation model that simulated changes in solar irradiance and stratospheric ozone was used to investigate the response of the atmosphere to the 11-year solar activity cycle. At solar maximum, a warming of the summer stratosphere was found to strengthen easterly winds, which penetrated into the equatorial upper troposphere, causing poleward shifts in the positions of the subtropical westerly jets, broadening of the tropical Hadley circulations, and poleward shifts of the storm tracks. These effects are similar to, although generally smaller in magnitude than, those observed in nature. A simulation in which only solar irradiance was changed showed a much weaker response.
DA - 1996/05/17/
PY - 1996
DO - 10.1126/science.272.5264.981
DP - www.sciencemag.org
VL - 272
IS - 5264
SP - 981
EP - 984
J2 - Science
LA - en
SN - 0036-8075, 1095-9203
UR - http://www.sciencemag.org/content/272/5264/981
Y2 - 2014/02/18/15:00:14
ER -
TY - RPRT
TI - GEMS Final Report
AU - GEMS
CY - www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/documents/reports/GEMS_Final_Report.pdf
DA - 2012///
PY - 2012
UR - www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/documents/reports/GEMS_Final_Report.pdf
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The annual cycle of the energy budget. Part II: Meridional structures and poleward transports
AU - Fasullo, John T.
AU - Trenberth, Kevin E.
T2 - Journal of Climate
DA - 2008/05//
PY - 2008
DO - 10.1175/2007JCLI1936.1
DP - CrossRef
VL - 21
IS - 10
SP - 2313
EP - 2325
SN - 0894-8755, 1520-0442
ST - The Annual Cycle of the Energy Budget. Part II
UR - http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007JCLI1936.1
Y2 - 2014/02/18/14:33:17
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The Japanese 55-year reanalysis “JRA-55”: An Interim Report
AU - Ebita, Ayataka
AU - Kobayashi, Shinya
AU - Ota, Yukinari
AU - Moriya, Masami
AU - Kumabe, Ryoji
AU - Onogi, Kazutoshi
AU - Harada, Yayoi
AU - Yasui, Soichiro
AU - Miyaoka, Kengo
AU - Takahashi, Kiyotoshi
AU - Kamahori, Hirotaka
AU - Kobayashi, Chiaki
AU - Endo, Hirokazu
AU - Soma, Motomu
AU - Oikawa, Yoshinori
AU - Ishimizu, Takahisa
T2 - SOLA
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.2151/sola.2011-038
DP - CrossRef
VL - 7
SP - 149
EP - 152
SN - 1349-6476
ST - The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis “JRA-55”
UR - http://joi.jlc.jst.go.jp/JST.JSTAGE/sola/2011-038?from=CrossRef
Y2 - 2013/09/09/13:28:57
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - The international atmospheric circulation reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative
AU - Allan, R.
AU - Brohan, P.
AU - Compo, G.P.
AU - Stone, R.
AU - Luterbacher, J.
AU - Brönnimann, S.
T2 - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
AB - The Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) Initiative was established with the goal of encouraging and undertaking the research work needed to produce and use reanalyses for climate applications. ACRE works closely with the international surface weather and climate observations community particularly the International Surface Pressure Databank, the international RECLAIM, the International Environmental Data Rescue Organization, and NOAA's NCDC Climate Database Modernization Program. The first ACRE-facilitated reanalysis product, the 20CR Version 2 dataset, has global four-times-daily atmospheric and surface fields spanning 1871-2008. The 20CR generates global gridded wind, temperature, pressure, humidity, and other variables at 2° latitude by 2° longitude horizontal resolution and 28 vertical levels with an ensemble of 56 analyses for each 6-hourly time step. The 20CR also generates quality control information and other metadata about the ISPD observations.
DA - 2011///
PY - 2011
DO - 10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1
DP - Scopus
VL - 92
IS - 11
SP - 1421
EP - 1425
LA - English
SN - 00030007
ER -
TY - JOUR
TI - Radiative forcing and temperature response to changes in urban albedos and associated CO2 offsets
AU - Menon, S.
AU - Akbari, H.
AU - Mahanama, S.
AU - Sednev, I.
AU - Levinson, R.
T2 - Environmental Research Letters
AB - The two main forcings that can counteract to some extent the positive forcings from greenhouse gases from pre-industrial times to present day are the aerosol and related aerosol-cloud forcings, and the radiative response to changes in surface albedo. Here, we quantify the change in radiative forcing and land surface temperature that may be obtained by increasing the albedos of roofs and pavements in urban areas in temperate and tropical regions of the globe by 0.1. Using the catchment land surface model (the land model coupled to the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model), we quantify the change in the total outgoing (outgoing shortwave+longwave) radiation and land surface temperature to a 0.1 increase in urban albedos for all global land areas. The global average increase in the total outgoing radiation was 0.5Wm-2, and temperature decreased by ∼0.008K for an average 0.003 increase in surface albedo. These averages represent all global land areas where data were available from the land surface model used and are for the boreal summer (June-July-August). For the continental US the total outgoing radiation increased by 2.3Wm-2, and land surface temperature decreased by ∼0.03K for an average 0.01 increase in surface albedo. Based on these forcings, the expected emitted CO2 offset for a plausible 0.25 and 0.15 increase in albedos of roofs and pavements, respectively, for all global urban areas, was found to be ∼57GtCO2. A more meaningful evaluation of the impacts of urban albedo increases on global climate and the expected CO2 offsets would require simulations which better characterize urban surfaces and represent the full annual cycle. © 2010 IOP Publishing Ltd.
DA - 2010///
PY - 2010
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014005
DP - Scopus
VL - 5
IS - 1
LA - English
SN - 17489326
UR - http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/1/014005
KW - CO2 offsets
KW - Radiative forcing
KW - Urban albedo
ER -